Box Office - 'Avatar' Steamrolls, '2012' Rules China

More big news for Avatar at the box office: James Cameron's flick took in just under $20 million on Monday, taking its total to $232 million in 11 days. No, it's not record-breaking (Dark Knight did three bills in ten days last year), but the film has earned twice as much in the week following its wide release as it did in its debut. A $77 million opening has been followed $155 million in the week since. When will it slow down? Well, I think it's starting to, at least in terms of percentages. But the film still has almost two full weeks before it faces more new competition, having effectively stared Sherlock Holmes into submission. It will probably cross $300 million on Saturday, maybe Friday, and there's another full week after that for the film to really, really cash in. By the weekend of January 15th, we're almost certainly closing in on $400 million unless the bottom just drops out. It gets tougher after that, just as it did for Dark Knight and every other blockbuster released in the past decade. A lot depends on how many theaters Fox decides to keep, and then there are the massive number of movies coming out between January 15th and Valentine's Day (a baker's dozen in at least 1,000 theaters). So, mid-January to mid-February should see a noticeable drop-off, as you would expect, which is why it's so tough for anything to even dream about catching Titanic.I'll briefly recap why Titanic is nearly impossible to dethrone in the current climate in case you're a first-timer here: Release patterns and DVDs. Movies don't stay in theaters for 11 months now, because studios want to make DVD cash four months after the box office starts, and no movies, not one since Titanic, has been number one over three months after it was released. It's just different now. In this case, the heartbeat of Avatar will be repeat viewings in IMAX, unless I miss my guess, and I just don't think the film can do another $100 million or so relying on that over a month into its run. But if I had to spitball? $460 - 480 million or so. I haven't had time to really crack the numbers, but there's only a remote chance it does less than $450 million based on the way everything's lining up. I think we're looking at nearly $340 million by next Sunday, and it will probably add another $50 million the following week, maybe more. Again, that's a very rough sketch, but it could be the next biggest film after The Dark Knight by the end of February. With Alice in Wonderland opening in IMAX on March 5th, I have a hard time seeing where the extra $30 - $50 million would come from, though. In other news, 2012 is now the all-time record holder in Russia and China. We reported the Russian record several weeks ago, and now the disaster movie has accounted for over $67 million in China, bringing the international total up to $584 million in less than two months. It will soon crack the all-time top 30 for worldwide gross, surpassing Star Wars and possible Spider-Man 2 by the time it's done.

Comments

[knives]

I'll admit to not understanding what exactly you mean by slowing down in percentages. Isn't 19 mil more than it made last Monday?

[LX]

I think Avatar has all chances to have the secong-biggest (after Titanic) or the biggest box-office worldwide. And lines like "..it's just different now" really cracked me up. Avatar made $650 million worldwide in 11 days. Thought in Japan it started only 4 days ago. In China - starts on Jan 2nd.

'2012' did not break any records in Russia. Avatar did. Making $20 million in it's opening weekend. It's the 1st time for Russian box-office making that much in one weekend.

[Get The Big Picture]

Yes, it is, but five of the last eight days have been down from the previous day.

[jc]

Of course the week B.O. numbers are going to be down from the weekend. The fact is it is not slowing down, if it were slowing down it would make less money than the week before, it hasn't. That means not only is it's audience seeing it again but it is also expanding. We will know what avatar is really made of when winter break ends. I think it will be number one at the B.O. the next two weeks. I think The Book of Eli and Legion are the only movies in January that have a real shot at beating it.

[Nelson]

what's your prediction for domestic total?

[jake]

Ignorant article in saying that after titanic no movie has stayed number one after 3 months and then using that as an ingress to saying "it's just different now". There were no movies in the decade before Titanic that were number one after 3 months either. Also release patterns weren't THAT different. Hey if a movie does great after 3 months it will keep its theaters, but no movie since Titanic has done that so it has been a non-issue.

Titanic was an abherration, and Avatar is as well. Not saying it will last 3 months at number 1, but it won't need to since its grosses so far vastly outnumber Titanic's, so it can afford to drop off faster.

[Honz Brix]

Any way you look at it we are witnessing something special. I've been saying for months that this would start a little slower than most thought then it would make atleast 80% of its money after opening weekend because it was going to need the word of mouth. Everyone was saying "it looks stupid". I went yesterday for the 3rd time and dragged 8 of my friends with me who haven't seen it yet. They were going to wait for DVD but i convinced them it was a must see in theaters. They all loved it and were glad they went. Even i didn't think it would be this big though. It set the record for the biggest 2nd weekend in BO history beating the Dark Knight. It dropped less than 2% of its audience this weekend and actually gained a little if you take away the midnight numbers from opening weekend. I now think $500 million is not out of the question but still don't think it comes within $50 million of Titanic in US. Worldwide maybe it gets to #2 catching Return of the King but i don't think it comes within $600 million of Titanic there. I agree with Colin, there is just to much money to be made on the home market unfortunately. Hopefully the Blu Ray will be released in 3D even at a higher price. I have no problem paying premium money to see this movie over and over again

[Get The Big Picture]

It is just different now, LX and Jake. Put away your Cameron hard-ons and look at the numbers, especially before calling me "ignorant" for bothering to analyze it, which clearly you haven't done. Titanic had zero $100 million movies to contend with between December and May. Zero. Does that happen now? The highest grossing film released between Titanic in December 1997 and Memorial Day 1998 was Deep Impact, which grossed $140 million and was released in May. Only five movies in that time period even made $50 million. Titanic was in theaters for 11 months. The home video market was based more on rentals than sales and it wasn't accelerated to a four-month window, which several studios are trying to sneak up to three months now. Please explain to me how that's the same or even similar as the business model surrounding Avatar.

Titanic was in the top ten in June, six months after it came out. The Dark Knight was only in 75 theaters six months after it came out. That kind of run just isn't going to happen here or anywhere else. There's too much competition too often, and if you're Fox, would you rather make $1 million a weekend in April or sell 15 million DVDs?

As for the numbers being down during the week versus the weekend...Avatar lost 20% on Monday. The previous year, Marley and Me lost 22% or something, and in the years before that, both National Treasure and Night at the Museum lost less than 20% on the first weekday after Christmas. King Kong, in release a couple days longer at this point in 2005, actually went up about 35% on the first weekday after Christmas. The point is, the week after Christmas is gravy, and Avatar only losing 20% isn't anything special in and of itself. It's a typical drop right now, neither good nor bad. You are right that it will roll through the winter break, but does it make another $75 million this weekend? I'm not going to bet on that.