Fearless Forecast - 'Blind Side' Finally Scores a Win

More than most, this is a tough weekend to predict at the box office. There are four things really driving that lack of clarity: 1) The new releases all look like sub-top five finishers, with none of them in massive release. 2) Is New Moon really done? 3) Can The Blind Side continue its terrific run for another weekend? 4) With last weekend being a Thanksgiving record, how many of those films are still likely to have audiences moving forward? The new movies this weekend are Armored, Brothers, Everybody's Fine, and the out-of-season Transylmania. The reviews are not anything to write home about and usually movies opening in fewer than 3,000 theaters don't hit number one when they have a couple heavy hitters to take down, and that's the situation this weekend. Is New Moon "done"? That's the wrong word, but the tumult the film caused has definitely subsided. It's made over $230 million already, and $300 million may be in the cards, but it's no longer racing to get there. The daily numbers this week are roughly 75% off the same days last week, indicating little repeat business. It's not a sure bet the movie will hit $20 million this weekend. The Blind Side is certainly the most intriguing film in the top five at the moment, and we saw it gain momentum over Thanksgiving. The advantage it has over everything else is that the word of mouth has been uniformly strong, and having a big second weekend should keep the curiosity alive for one more round. It will still fight with New Moon for the top spot, but it has more stamina at this point. Finally, last weekend's numbers were a record, and indeed, despite the bad economy, this will be the first year to ever hit $10 billion at the box office. It has a little more than $400 million to go to reach 11 digits, but Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, and of all things Alvin and the Chipmunks should be enough to get us there. We've had more $100 million weekends this year than ever - 39 out of 48 - and that's just counting the top 12 movies on any weekend. So the box office is booming. However, this weekend, most of the boom will come from known quantities, like New Moon and The Blind Side, while the new movies will probably have to take the leftovers. The Top Five:
1 - The Blind Side ($21 million)
2 - New Moon ($19.5 million)
3 - Armored ($9 million)
4 - 2012 ($8 million)
5 - Old Dogs ($7.5 million)

Comments

[Krystal]

As well, this might be the 1st year that a studio/distributor makes $2 billion at the domestic box office. Warner Bros. currently has just over $1.86 B & needs less than $140 million. Of course New Line's box office is now being tallied in with WB's, which is why they're so close to begin with.