Fearless Forecast - Jason Kills 'em All

Almost instinctively, I'm saying that Friday the 13th is going to dominate the weekend box office. And then I think about it, and I think it's going to be even more dominating..er...ing. You see, it's not just a reboot of one of those classic franchises, one that will continue to convert young fans, but it's also the only movie aimed at young moviegoers right now, so they ought to respond with their always frivolous spending. That's not to say Confessions of a Shopaholic won't make money. It'll do fine, and it could even fare surprisingly well if a lot of single women band together on Valentine's Day weekend and see it in large groups. But there's a big audience split between this film and He's Just Not That Into You, and that, couple with the clear advantage Friday the 13th has in theater numbers, will keep Shopaholic from going toe-to- toe with Jason. I once held out hope that The International could be a box office hit. It seems smarter than the other two films, it's got a great cast, and it's timely. Perhaps it's too timely, though. The action thriller about corrupt banks may hit too close to home, and that might help explain why Sony is only releasing this in 2,300 theaters. It has very little hope of taking hold that way because it's a wide enough release to give an opening weekend impression of how the film will track, but it's not so wide that everyone gets a chance to see it. They might have been better off scaling back to 800 or 1,000 theaters and going wide from there if they're not willing to commit 3,000 houses to it. Like Shopaholic, The International has a cousin in theaters, and based on the remarkable audience retention Taken showed last weekend, there are still plenty of people interested in it. In fact, Taken will probably outperform The International over the next three days. The Top Five:
1 - Friday the 13th ($32 million)
2 - Confessions of a Shopaholic ($18 million)
3 - He's Just Not That Into You ($17 million)
4 - Taken ($14 million)
5 - Coraline ($12 million)