Fearless Forecast - When Jason Met 'Madea'

It's Tyler Perry time again, with Madea Goes to Jail the weekend's big new release. Will it have enough steam to hit number one? Probably. You can never be too sure about movies that have a sizable built-in audience but that tend to exclude other demographics, and Tyler Perry movies don't screen for the majority of critics anymore, meaning that if you know the movie's coming or you pay attention to the ads, you might be there this weekend. If you don't, you probably won't. There are currently no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, meaning no weekly magazines or newspapers that contribute to that site have seen it. Still, he's in the $20 million neighborhood with most of his movies, a little more with Madea flicks, so this has a real chance to take the top spot. What could stand in his/her way? Jason Voorhees. And nothing else. If Friday the 13th has a big weekend - which it probably won't, based on the weekday numbers - it could spoil the party. Even if it winds up in second place, it should be within shouting distance of Madea, unless last Friday truly did demonstrate most of the slasher's box office potential. The only other new release is Fired Up, a cheerleading movie that will be lucky to make $8 or $9 million, which means another big weekend for Taken and He's Just Not That Into You, as the industry more or less takes the weekend off for the Oscars. The Top Five: 1 - Madea Goes to Jail ($21 million)
2 - Friday the 13th ($18 million)
3 - Taken ($14 million)
4 - He's Just Not That Into You ($12 million)
5 - Coraline ($9 million)

Comments

[Lost Wilson]

This one (Madea) is going to be a bit like Paul Blart: Surprising and profitable.