Friday
20Feb2009
The Big Picture's Oscar Picks
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 11:21AM
We'll cover every category in less detail later on today when we give you a chance to predict the Oscar winners for fantabulous prizes, but for the major categories, we thought a little explanation was in order. Here's how we see the Academy Awards playing out this weekend and why.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Win Win: Slumdog Millionaire Less the crowd favorite than simply the best choice. There was no better film in 2008, top to bottom. If you bet against it, I would say Milk is the dark horse pick, but the night will belong to Slumdog. Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler Should Win: Frank Langella
Win Win: Mickey Rourke My personal pick in this category is Frank Langella. I thought that what he did with Nixon was a real high-wire act in addition to great acting. He also had to sell the whole movie and Nixon's entire presidency with one facial expression at the film's most pivotal moment, and nobody else matched that in this category. However...Rourke will win because the Academy loves reclamation projects, and he's the biggest one of those in a while. It's also a better performance than Sean Penn's in Milk. Plus, in the minds of the voter, you know Penn will be back in this category, and you can never be too sure with Mickey. Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader Should Win: Meryl Streep
Win Win: Kate Winslet Even though I saw them within a week of each other, I have a much greater memory of Streep's performance than Winslet's. I honestly remember more about Ralph Fiennes in The Reader. However, she's never won the award, and even though Streep has lost it 12 times, she'll go home emptyhanded again, even though she's the best choice in the category. Best Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Gus Van Sant - Milk Should Win: David Fincher
Win Win: Danny Boyle It's not a runaway or anything, but I think that David Fincher was simply the best juggler this year - visual effects for days, a sprawling epic, star performers. Perhaps if the award were for "most" directing, he'd win. Again, Boyle is right on his heels in my opinion, and he's won everything so far this awards season. Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road Should Win: Heath Ledger
Win Win: Heath Ledger The evening's real foregone conclusion. There's not even an if involved. Ledger would've won had he been alive, and not to sound crass, but they're certainly not going to overlook the impact The Dark Knight had on the past year and not honor the dead guy who made most of it happen. Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Should Win: Viola Davis
Win Win: Penelope Cruz Three of the four acting categories have a little guesswork, and that's probably a good thing. Best Supporting Actress has always been the Academy's wild card (Kim Basinger, Anna Paquin, Whoopi, Tomei, Sorvino, Marcia Gay Harden, Geena Davis...). I thought Viola Davis went head-to-head with Streep for one of the year's best scenes, and I don't think anyone else in this category changed the direction of their film as much. Cruz maybe, but she was better in Elegy. I think Penelope will win, though, but this one could go to any nominee. Best Original Screenplay:
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E Should Win: In Bruges
Win Win: Milk For my money, In Bruges had the best script of the year, period. I'm glad it got nominated. It could be a sleeper pick here, but this award generally goes to a Best Picture candidate. There's only one of those in this group, so you do the math. Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Win Win: Slumdog Millionaire Can you even make a case for anything else? Button is too Gump-y, Frost/Nixon and Doubt are converted stage plays, and The Reader...well, look, nobody thought it would get this far, anyway. Best Animated Film:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Should Win: Wall-E
Win Win: Wall-E Depending on what you believe, Wall-E will win this. I say that because at a recent awards ceremony for and by animators, Kung Fu Panda won everything - like, 13 awards - and Wall-E got nothing. I don't expect that at the Oscars, but that could be the surprise of the evening. It wouldn't hurt to pick it in your pool if everyone else's ballots look the same. Best Foreign Language Film:
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revance
Waltz With Bashir Should Win: Waltz With Bashir
Win Win: Waltz With Bashir Because of the rules for foreign language eligibility, not all of these films have had concentrated American releases. Consequently, I haven't seen all of these. The Class and Bashir are the ones making all the noise and I have seen those. Bashir's the better, more original film.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Win Win: Slumdog Millionaire Less the crowd favorite than simply the best choice. There was no better film in 2008, top to bottom. If you bet against it, I would say Milk is the dark horse pick, but the night will belong to Slumdog. Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler Should Win: Frank Langella
Win Win: Mickey Rourke My personal pick in this category is Frank Langella. I thought that what he did with Nixon was a real high-wire act in addition to great acting. He also had to sell the whole movie and Nixon's entire presidency with one facial expression at the film's most pivotal moment, and nobody else matched that in this category. However...Rourke will win because the Academy loves reclamation projects, and he's the biggest one of those in a while. It's also a better performance than Sean Penn's in Milk. Plus, in the minds of the voter, you know Penn will be back in this category, and you can never be too sure with Mickey. Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader Should Win: Meryl Streep
Win Win: Kate Winslet Even though I saw them within a week of each other, I have a much greater memory of Streep's performance than Winslet's. I honestly remember more about Ralph Fiennes in The Reader. However, she's never won the award, and even though Streep has lost it 12 times, she'll go home emptyhanded again, even though she's the best choice in the category. Best Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Gus Van Sant - Milk Should Win: David Fincher
Win Win: Danny Boyle It's not a runaway or anything, but I think that David Fincher was simply the best juggler this year - visual effects for days, a sprawling epic, star performers. Perhaps if the award were for "most" directing, he'd win. Again, Boyle is right on his heels in my opinion, and he's won everything so far this awards season. Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road Should Win: Heath Ledger
Win Win: Heath Ledger The evening's real foregone conclusion. There's not even an if involved. Ledger would've won had he been alive, and not to sound crass, but they're certainly not going to overlook the impact The Dark Knight had on the past year and not honor the dead guy who made most of it happen. Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Should Win: Viola Davis
Win Win: Penelope Cruz Three of the four acting categories have a little guesswork, and that's probably a good thing. Best Supporting Actress has always been the Academy's wild card (Kim Basinger, Anna Paquin, Whoopi, Tomei, Sorvino, Marcia Gay Harden, Geena Davis...). I thought Viola Davis went head-to-head with Streep for one of the year's best scenes, and I don't think anyone else in this category changed the direction of their film as much. Cruz maybe, but she was better in Elegy. I think Penelope will win, though, but this one could go to any nominee. Best Original Screenplay:
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E Should Win: In Bruges
Win Win: Milk For my money, In Bruges had the best script of the year, period. I'm glad it got nominated. It could be a sleeper pick here, but this award generally goes to a Best Picture candidate. There's only one of those in this group, so you do the math. Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Win Win: Slumdog Millionaire Can you even make a case for anything else? Button is too Gump-y, Frost/Nixon and Doubt are converted stage plays, and The Reader...well, look, nobody thought it would get this far, anyway. Best Animated Film:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Should Win: Wall-E
Win Win: Wall-E Depending on what you believe, Wall-E will win this. I say that because at a recent awards ceremony for and by animators, Kung Fu Panda won everything - like, 13 awards - and Wall-E got nothing. I don't expect that at the Oscars, but that could be the surprise of the evening. It wouldn't hurt to pick it in your pool if everyone else's ballots look the same. Best Foreign Language Film:
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revance
Waltz With Bashir Should Win: Waltz With Bashir
Win Win: Waltz With Bashir Because of the rules for foreign language eligibility, not all of these films have had concentrated American releases. Consequently, I haven't seen all of these. The Class and Bashir are the ones making all the noise and I have seen those. Bashir's the better, more original film.
Reader Comments (3)
The only category that has my attention (with all respect to Mr. Heath Ledger) is the best director. I like that you suggest Mr. Fincher should win, while Danny Boyle will win, because these are the only two horses I care about here. These two gentlemen have been making some of the finest films of my adult life, and neither of them have been rewarded for it in an era where the academy seemed inclined to scratch the backs of Hollywood's old guard...
The Eastwoods...
The Ron Howards...
The Steven Spielbergs...
The Mel Gibsons...
There are a number of talented directors working on the fringe. Modern directors. Edgy directors. Directors with too much inclination to take on risky projects.
Boyle and Fincher both are coming into their own as directors, and represent the future of filmaking while the previously mentioned directors safely reside in the past, and will finish their careers making the same types of movies.
I too give the edge to Boyle because I know how the Academy thinks. Not only has Millionaire surpassed the odds my being insanely profitable, Mr. Boyle is a harder working director than Mr. Fincher. By that I mean that his perfectionism, while glorious when it finally reaches the screen, will also be his curse.
Like Woody Allen, Danny Boyle keeps working and working and working until he gets it right, realizing that the failures come with the successes. He has probably already wrapped two films since Millionaire, while Fincher is still struggling with the opening line of his next.
And that is why Boyle will walk home with the statue come Sunday night. I'm guessing it's already been engraved...
You sort of have to wonder if Christopher Nolan and Company (IE Warner) secretly took themselves out of contention. I know that this site has paid alot of attention to "THE SNUB" tm (all rights reserved), but in all reality, this is the capstone of Ledgers "legacy" and a big night for The Dark Knight would surely overshadow that...
Wouldn't it?
Are there any differences between your "will win" picks and who won the Golden Globes? i'm just wondering if the two shows are set to go hand-in-hand with their winners...