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Thursday
26Feb2009

Memo to Marvel: Don't Mess with 'Harry Potter'

DateThursday, February 26, 2009 at 2:15AM
On Tuesday, it was announced that Warner Bros. would release the very last Harry Potter film, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II on July 15, 2011. We didn't go into the huge reverberation that particular announcement would have because there were about six other movies with new release dates, too, and it would have just been too much stuff at once.

So now's the time to talk about it. What's significant about that date - July 15, 2011 - is that Marvel had already announced it as their launch of the Avengers movie. Another news item from this week announced that the comic book company turned movie studio had secured Samuel L. Jackson for nearly ten films as Nick Fury, the capstone being The Avengers, which would combine the efforts of The Incredible Hulk, Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, and maybe two or three other heroes.

That's a big deal. But it's not nearly as big as the last Harry Potter movie. So Marvel: You should move The Avengers.

I don't mean move it to 2012 or anything, just a good two or three weeks so it can become the next blockbuster instead of being an also-ran to the boy wizard. Here's the math: The Harry Potter series accounts for about one quarter of the top 20 movies of all time. By the time the money stops coming in for this summer's Half-Blood Prince, the six films will have grossed about $5.2 - $5.4 billion around the world. That is the most ever for a franchise by nearly two billion dollars.

So, love the Marvel movies all you want, but remember: The entire success of Avengers as a movie depends on Iron Man primarily, and probably Captain America secondarily. We know Hulk doesn't do anything for audiences, and Thor simply doesn't look that promising on a mainstream level. Regardless, it's the same audience. You're not going to get people who love Thor and have never seen Iron Man. So rather than building three or four audiences, you're still pulling the same group of people, although if the films leading up to The Avengers work, you might get more of them.

But even at their peaks, those heroes simply can't go toe-to-toe with Harry Potter. Certainly not Deathly Hallows. Can both movies co-exist? I guess that depends on the expectations for each one. Five years ago, Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow both opened on Memorial Day weekend, and both made over $85 million. But that doesn't happen very often. And the biggest weekend ever for the top 12 movies at the box office was last July, when The Dark Knight accounted for 62% of the $253 million made the weekend it debuted.

The average opening weekend gross for Harry Potter is $90 million. That's less than Iron Man, you say. And it is. But the average is more than Iron Man and Hulk by almost $20 million. And of the six Marvel movies to open with more than $80 million at the box office, only one didn't kick off the summer movie season (Spider-Man 2). The Avengers isn't kicking off the summer, either, and that might count for something.

I highly doubt Marvel wants to build this entire series of movies over three years only to compete with the last movie in the most financially successful film franchise of all time. Consider the expense of having all of that talent involved in The Avengers. You think Robert Downey, Jr. is going to work for free? Even if the other heroes are reasonable, that's still probably $50 million in salary between five guys, but it's probably going to be more than that. And then there's the villain. And the effects. And the other Avengers we really don't care about. The cast could end up costing $100 million, therefore, having a strong opening weekend is essential.

So the solution is simple. Marvel should just move The Avengers as soon as possible to avoid the headache.

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AuthorColin Boyd | | in , , , , | Print ArticlePrint Article | | Comment2 Comments |

Reader Comments (2)

Excellent points. I hope they listen to you. Especially if you consider the overlapping of the two audiences. A LOT of Marvel fans are Harry Potter fans too (that's just the way us geeks work). If you made me choose between an Avengers movie that I've always wanted to see versus the final chapter of Harry Potter who was my obsession from 2004 to 2007, I would probably choose Potter.

Now, if it was Half Blood Prince vs. Watchmen, I would take Watchmen. Possibly even Deathly Hallows Part I vs. Watchmen. But even though I've waited 20 years to see the Watchmen on screen I'd probably see the final Potter film over Watchmen.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

You are insane if you think Harry Potter will stand above the Avengers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

Iron Man made more money domestically than any Potter movie. That was just the origin story. Just take a look at how The Dark Knight grew from the first movie to the second. If Iron Man parallels that at all, we'll have a new franchise breaking records. That's just one piece of the puzzle. The Hulk is back on the big screen. The new Incredible Hulk was a good movie, with a good future, good direction, and it made money. It gained back it's fans, and when the Hulk shows up again, the fans will be back to see him. Marvel is already locking up great people for Thor and Captain America. The director choices are perfect for both of them. Both movies will be (at worst) solid. What will make them great is their connection to Iron Man and The Avengers.

When all of that is thrown into one movie, I pity any movie that tries to compete with it. It's the only movie in the near future that has the ability to compete with the numbers of The Dark Knight.

I am a devoted fan and a long-time reader of the Harry Potter books. I love all of the movies and am excited to see the rest of them. But, it's comical to think they can compete with a movie of this magnitude. Nothing like this has ever been done. And there's no reason to believe there won't be sequels to The Avengers in the future. There's really no limits.

Harry Potter 8 will be the last shot at another truck load of money for the Harry Potter franchise. Their success in the past is due to the fact that they never went head to head with anything else with decent numbers. They would be making the biggest mistake to try to release their date at the same time as any movie that summer. If they think they will bully around a giant movie that's nearly 50 years in the making, they have really lost it.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterR. U. Kidding

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