Fearless Forecast - 'I Love You, Man' Could Win Competitive Weekend

It's a legitimately tough weekend to predict at the box office. There are three new releases that should all do about the same business of the course of their lives. Knowing will arrive in just over 3,000 theaters, so it doesn't need to do as well in each location to make an impact. I Love You, Man probably has the most momentum. Paul Rudd is coming off a big hit with Role Models just a handful of months ago, and his new comedy is geting great reviews. It will arrive in about 500 fewer theaters than Knowing, as will Duplicity, the new romantic spy comedy with Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. Roberts, more than any other actress in history, can open a movie. That this probably won't arrive at number one has a little to do with her decreased activity, but again, theater counts play a part; it will only be in about 75% of the number of houses that Knowing will. So how does it play out? My hunch is that I Love You, Man will win. All things between equel, comedies get more leeway from audiences than big sci-fi movies. It doesn't help Knowing that Nicolas Cage has only had four $100 million movies in ten years, half of those National Treasure flicks. His average box office since 1999 is $60 million, and that's about where this one will wind up. It could win the weekend, but either way, the race will be a close one. The Top Five:
1 - I Love You, Man - $19 million
2 - Knowing - $18 million
3 - Race to Wich Mountain - $16 million
4 - Duplicity - $14.5 million
5 - Watchmen - $8 million