Fearless Forecast - 'Obsessed' Should Win Weekend Catfight

The movies released this weekend aren't going to enjoy major success. That's by design, because the major studios are so invested in their May blockbusters that they barely have the resources to promote stuff the week before the summer season gets here. So even though a couple of these movies might make a little bit of cash this weekend, they're essentially DOA. The one movie that has the most box office potential is probably Obsessed. There's no secret to it; it's just in the most theaters. Also, as we get into summer, there's not a movie quite like it, which means it will have less direct competition. I've seen some estimates upwards of $17 million for this weekend, but that seems high to me; I'd be surprised if we see anything higher than $15 million, with a stack of movies between $7 - $12 million. Depending on the second weekend for 17 Again, Fighting could finish in second place. They're both in that $12 million range, although it's tough to tell with Fighting because Channing Tatum has no solid history. Maybe this will explode and he'll become a bankable star. But more than likely, he'll have to do battle with Zac Efron for the silver medal. Below those two films, you've got State of Play, Monsters vs. Aliens, and the new release The Soloist all grabbing interest from post-college age adults (MvA is still owning the family box office business). So that's anybody's game. But they should all be in the running for a top five finish. The Top Five:
1 - Obsessed ($14.5 million)
2 - 17 Again ($11.5 million)
3 - Fighting ($11 million)
4 - State of Play ($8 million)
1 - The Soloist ($7 million)