Summer 2009 Box Office Breakdown

There will not be a Dark Knight this summer. That's not the easiest thing in the world, of course. Only two movies have ever made $500 million, and even though there are some big hitters, it just seems highly unlikely that any of them have that kind of ceiling. In fact, looking at the entire landscape, I only see four movies that can conceivably hit the $300 million mark, which is one more than we had last year. I doubt all four will make it, but they have the potential to. We should also have one more $200 million movie than last year, though. So, in a way, even though we don't have an all-timer on our hands, the total box office will resemble last year's. Leading the way are Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The 2007 Transformers crossed the $300 million mark and I can't imagine that the heavily-marketed sequel will lose any of its audience. How high can it go? Well, with no major blockbuster within two weeks of Transformers either way, the odds are very good that it could be the pace-setter for the rest of the movies this summer. Harry Potter needs no explanation. Five movies with an average box office of $282 million, and the most recent entry in the series was the second highest grossing so far. Benefiting it in the box office race this year is the total absence of competition between July 17th and Labor Day. G.I. Joe will do some business in August but it doesn't have the legs of the movies at the top of this list and it arrives three weeks into Potter's run. Two movies that have slim chances at $300 million but probably won't just because of the competition in May are Wolverine and Star Trek. Wolverine kicks off summer this weekend, and based on recent box office, ought to open around $100 million. But how can it possibly keep up that pace against Trek, Terminator, and Angels & Demons? In a less crowded month, it would have a much better shot, but especially after a couple of weeks, the wheels should start to slow. Plus, none of the X-Men movies have topped $250 million, so for this one to make that jump is tough to justify. The second weekend is key for Wolverine, but if Star Trek hits the ground running like it should, that will make anything over $275 for Wolverine hard to hit. Star Trek appears to be the movie generating the most heat. A complete reboot of one of the world's most enduring franchises that has wowed preview audiences, Trek could be the box ofice champ for May even though it is surrounded on all sides. Wolverine could take some audience, Terminator definitely will. If Trek switched places with either one, it might have even more potential. But I still think it will be the fanboys' choice for the first month of summer. Speaking of Terminator, I'm not overly convinced Christian Bale is a "movie star" just yet. His box office outside of the Batman movies is not good at all, so I don't think he'll lift Terminator Salvation much higher than it would go without him. So how high is that? Well, Terminator: Rise of the Machines topped out at $150 million. This one will do better than that, no question, but the really dark tone of it will be limiting. It'll do well, but $300 million? Seems doubtful unless it's just universally accepted the way Dark Knight was. But it's easily a $200 - $225 million movie at least. You can't discount Angels & Demons and Night at the Museum in the discussions for the top ten movies of the summer. They don't generate a lot of online buzz, but sequels generally outperform the first movies and The Da Vinci Code was a top five finisher in '06, and Night at the Museum was the second highest-grossing film that same year. Seriously. I don't expect Night at the Museum to repeat that performance; the first film was a winter release, and it faced almost no competition for about six or seven weeks. But as the first family film of the summer, it will have a big impact early on. Angels & Demons should make most of its money overseas, but as the first film of the season to engage older viewers, it could scare up business for quite a while. May concludes with Up, and the last Pixar movie to come out in May was Finding Nemo, the most profitable movie the studio has ever made. Up is a lot more accessible than Wall-E and even Ratatouille, so I think this is by far the top earning animated movie of the year and with a very quiet June, Up could rake in significant cash for three or four weeks. Speaking of June, we'll skip most of the month; when we look back at the summer session there won't be a single movie in the top ten of the box office from the first three weeks of this month. It's just smaller. And I don't know why you have six of the top ten movies in May and only one in June. Studios think May and July are the bigger months, so until somebody scores a surprise $200 million movie in the first couple of weeks of June, we won't see any tentpoles there. But there is Transformers on June 24th, and because there's nothing around it for two weeks prior and with no direct competition in the $250 million arena for nearly a month, Transformers has the best chance to win the summer box office. Look at the tangibles: $319 million the first time around, sequels do well, no huge opposition for several weeks. I can't see this topping out less than $320 million. More than likely, it will win the box office with about $340 million in the U.S. alone. On July 1st, Ice Age and Public Enemies arrive in theaters. The third Ice Age movie is the second major animated film, so it'll make a lot of money because of that and because audiences have already embraced the first two. That's good enough to place it in the top ten, earning money in July the same way Up will in June; what else is there for families to watch until Harry Potter? While I think Public Enemies might be one of the better movies all summer, is there anything about it that looks like a better fit over July 4th than in early October? Even with Johhny Depp and Christian Bale, it just feels like the timing is wrong for this one. I don't have any doubt that it will do well, but it's not going to stand in the way of Transformers or Harry Potter. It's more counterprogramming than blockbuster. July also gives us the top flat-out comedy of the summer, with Sacha Baron Cohen's Bruno, plus Harry Potter, which I think is the silver medal winner of the season. That's not a stretch, really. It benefits from no direct competition at all while it's less than a month old. Big business awaits. The last potential blockbuster of the summer is G.I. Joe, and it probably won't be anything that special, maybe not even getting into the top ten. If it's bad, I think it'll fade quickly. I guess the ceiling is probably around $150 million, but I'd be a little surprised to see it last long enough to get there. Speaking of, here's our full projection of the summer box office for 2009: 1 - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($342 million)
2 - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($309 million)
3 - Star Trek ($277 million)
4 - Up ($270 million)
5 - Wolverine ($255 million)
6 - Terminator Salvation ($235 million)
7 - Angels & Demons ($220 million)
8 - Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian ($210 million)
9 - Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($190 million)
10- Bruno - $145 million Other candidates: G.I. Joe, Land of the Lost, and Inglourious Basterds.

Comments

[Vince]

Sorry dude, I don't see "Up" performing nearly that well. I find it actually more inaccessible then past Pixar films. Think of it this way; think like a kid, what would you rather see: a film about a cute little robot going to space? Or a film about an old guy and a fat kid who float in the air with a balloon house?
Honestly, I think it's a tough sell, no matter how friendly and colorful the movie looks. I'm not saying that it won't do well (it's Pixar, duh) or that it's gonna suck or anything (again, it's Pixar, duh) but it's just doesn't seem as family-friendly as some of their other films. If I were 10 years old, I'd much rather pick the movie about the cute Ice Age characters than this one, if I were just basing off of advertisements.

I'm calling for around $200 million. Maybe a bit better than "Wall-E", maybe a little bit worse, who really knows. It just won't knock it out of the park like "Finding Nemo" did.

[Get The Big Picture]

I'm not saying it's doing Nemo money, but I've seen Up and it's one of the best Pixar movies yet. And it's the last big movie of May. And it has an entire month to gobble up all the family movie dollars.

[Chris]

That's encouraging to see you write that UP is good, because the trailers and stuff online didn't really look that good.

[Get The Big Picture]

Yes, that's true, and I was very outspoken about how average it looked. But it's the real deal.