Fearless Forecast: Vin Diesel Outmuscles Hannah Montana

Last weekend was the biggest April weekend ever at the box office, and at the rate it's going, the entire month might be the biggest April in history, as well. That's because, in addition to three new releases, two of which have some decent to good business prospects, we've still got two movies sure to make at least another $100 million combined between now and May. Even though we're seeing a lot of advertising for Observe and Report, I don't think there's any way that's the movie to beat this weekend. And just because Hannah Montana has a built-in crowd, don't expect that to rise to the top, either. No, it's going to be another win for Fast & Furious, and the reason I say that is not because it made $70 million last weekend, but because it will make about $15 million more during the week. People really want to see this, as evidenced by a ten-day total that will be near $125 million. So that's the lead horse in this race, followed by Hannah Montana, which would do better without the presence of Monsters vs. Aliens in theaters. But the last Hannah movie was big, and I think we can expect a decent showing this weekend, but not matching what the concert movie made last year. Dragonball probably won't do fantastic business, especially after this week. But when you add up what the top 12 movies should do this weekend, it's another $115 - $120 million weekend, down significantly from last weekend, but still enough to move April 2009 towards a record. The Top Five:
1 - Fast & Furious ($30 million)
2 - Hannah Montana ($25 million)
3 - Monsters vs. Aliens ($20 million)
4 - Observe and Report ($15 million)
5 - Dragonball ($7 million)

Comments

[Will]

Everywhere I go, people are telling me "OMG, you have to see Fast and Furious". I haven't noticed that with any other movie this year, not even Watchmen. Word of mouth, at least in my circles, has been very positive, which always bodes well for long term Box-office.

I think you are right, Colin. F&F all the way.

[knives]

Too bad you're probably right on O&R. The dark tone seems to be scaring off a lot of people

[monster beats]

monster beats So that's the lead horse in this race