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Wednesday
13May2009

'Star Trek' Monday Box Office Hints at Staying Power

I'll wait to see what the numbers look like this weekend before I present an official revised total for Star Trek. In my summer box office prediction released a couple of weeks ago, I had Trek owning the May movies, and of the six major cash cows released this month, I think it's one of three with considerable potential beyond its first three weeks, along with Up and maybe Terminator Salvation.

June can be a big month for the May movies; Iron Man, for example, made almost $40 million in June and Indiana Jones earned a little more than that. If you'll remember, though, Iron Man had already been in theaters three weeks when Indy was released on Memorial Day weekend.

The inference? The better film grabbed nearly as much business a month into its run as the newer movie did over the same period. Because it's really good and will benefit from great word of mouth, I expect that to hold true for Star Trek, giving it somewhere in the $40 - $50 million ballpark in June, a month with only one blockbuster (Transformers).

The question, then, becomes what will that chunk of change be added to? How much will Star Trek have in the coffers at the end of May? It's off to a great start - $79 million in the first four days. But the Monday returns are very encouraging: Star Trek made over $7 million on its first weekday, which is a better number than Iron Man had in a few hundred more theaters, and in fact, it's better than all but four movies from 2008. All of those films went on to gross at least $220 million.

So if Trek makes, say, $20 million from Monday to Thursday and comes back with a great second weekend, around $45 - $50 million or so, then the ten-day total will be around $150 million. That's with two weeks to go in May, including Memorial Day weekend, which generally gives a spike to popular films. I'll spare you the weekly numbers, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for Trek to be over $200 million at the end of the month, maybe just under $210 million.

That means that the film should get right around that $250 million mark, possibly a little higher. Again, this will be really hard to predict until we see how much of the audience sticks in the second weekend, although it's looking pretty good right now.

Reader Comments (3)

I don"t see star trek making 250 million it will easily cross 150 mark and will be grossing around 200 or 220 million .I think it"s pixar"s up might make 250 or 270 million going by the positive wibe and i think pixar up and terminator and transformer"s these are my blockbuster prediction of the summer movies.Out of one of these movies and harry potter will one of the highest grossing movie of this year i can assure you that

Wednesday, May 13, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterjoe

Star Trek will cross the $150 million mark in, like, a week. There's no way it does that kind of business and only makes another $50 - 70 million in two-and-a-half months, especially because it will get repeat business and should hold its attendance figures for another month. My numbers had it at $209.2 million at the end of May, and it should make tens of millions after that. Again, tough to read after only four days, but you can get a pretty good feel for where it's headed after two weekends.

I don't think Terminator can make $250 million. It has direct competition opening against it - which should tell you other studios don't even think it's a world beater - and it's very, very dark. I think T4 is more likely to stall at $220 than Star Trek is.

Pixar is interesting. Only three of its films have ever made $250 million or more, so the conventional wisdom would say that it won't get there, either. I predicted $270, however, a little south of my original Star Trek projection.

But the summer will ultimately come down to Transformers and Harry Potter. Potter you can almost pencil in at $285 - $300 million. It is, after all, the most lucrative film franchise of all time. If Transformers blows, it'll teeter, because the first movie made money the way Star Trek will this summer, through repeat business and buzz. It'll open huge regardless, but if it's lousy, it won't make it to $300 million.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

Well I can say that I finally caught Star Trek Wednesday night for the late show (one of three late shows at my local theatre) and it was still mostly full. The movie was great and I could feel the enjoyment in the audience when I saw it. Star Trek has no die in it if the theatre was still that full for the 950 wednesday show and everyone is liking the product.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAnybody

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