Box Office - 'Wolverine' Earns $35 Million on Friday

It really puts The Dark Knight into perspective when you look at what other superhero movies have done on their opening day at the box office. In his new column detailing Friday's estimated earnings, Steve Mason from Big Hollywood has X-Men Origins: Wolverine in seventh place all-time on the superhero list, earning roughly half what The Dark Knight made on its opening day. Still, $35 million is a quite a kill, but it's just off the pace set by Iron Man in the exact same slot last year. Mason has that estimate turning into a rather soft $86.8 million, but I'll go just a little bit north of that, expecting a ton of business today that is not bothered by the film's negative reviews. As we suspected, there's no way it's hitting $100 million, but if there is still some fervor for the film, I think our original projection of $90 million will be fairly accurate. The trouble is the high end of the range has diminished quite a bit; if it performs exceptionally well over the next couple of days, you could see $95 million or so, but that seems unlikely. Fox will not complain about a $90 million opening shot - or even the $86 million - but it does make you wonder how a poorly reviewed blockbuster will hold up next weekend against Star Trek, which has been overwhelmingly praised to this point. While it's entirely likely Wolverine will have around $130 million in the bank by next Friday, it could slip pretty quickly. We're still looking at a $200 million-plus event here, but how far beyond that mark it will go is hard to say until it faces some competition. Elsewhere, it looks like The Ghosts of Girlfriends Past will make around $15 - $18 million, which might even be a success. Certainly, making around $6 million on Friday is a good sign for a movie with fairly low expectations; you'd have to assume New Line would love a $40 - $50 million total haul for this one, and that seems about right at the moment. We'll have the complete breakdown tomorrow.

Comments

[MRPigg]

I am predicting that from this crowded May, Star Trek and Angels and Demons will have "legs" as they say, and Wolverine will disappear relatively quickly. Terminator will do better, but not as good as the other two.

Then again, I'm just a dude with a computer, so my "prediction" means nothing.

[Get The Big Picture]

Wolverine will disappear really quickly, I think. Almost non-existent by the time Terminator shows up. And the effect will probably stall its box office around $215 - $225. Why Iron Man held up so well had as much to do with fewer people seeing Prince Caspian and Speed Racer than would've been thought before they opened. So, Iron Man had three healthy weeks. Wolverine just won't do that.

[Will]

A year ago, Iron Man was a good choice for everyone's entertainment dollar. Wolverine, coming off the worst X-Men movie of the three had to be a home run, and on both counts, it isn't. Wolverine doesn't hold a leg to stand on with much more interesting Summer movies coming down the pike...

[D]

I actually think this movie has a better shot of making less than $200 million domestically than it does $215+. It was better than I thought it would be, but it felt rushed (to many characters crammed in and sloppy CGI for a movie with a $150 million+ budget) and won't carry long. If Angels and Demons and Star Trek flipped release dates I think Wolvie would make $220, but it's just not going to have the male under-30 demo to itself for long enough. But what do I know.

[Get The Big Picture]

You could be right, although I suspect it behooves Fox to dump a lot of money in advertising leading up to A & D, because that's the last stand, pardon the pun. Figure another $35 - $42 million next weekend depending on what it does on the weekdays, and it could be around $140 - $145 million on May 15th. One last push, a solid $25 million weekend then, would probably guarantee about $210 million, but it won't even be in the top five three weeks from now. I think Iron Man was in the top five until June last year.

Next weekend will really tell the story; Star Trek is so good, and like Dark Knight, the buzz is peaking at the right time. That could really hurt the second weekend for Wolverine, more than it normally would.

[YIT]

Wolverine would be in better shape if they had just made a better movie. A clue might have been to follow the source material a little closer. They really hosed this one up. The Deadpool character at the end was just plain stupid. I agree with everyone else that this movie will be forgotten by the time Star Trek and Teminator come out.

[D]

I actually wonder if Fox would have been better off moving the release date up a week. Demo wise the weekends are nearly identical since the kids are still in school for both of them. (The only real difference would be amongst the college crowd. With finals starting at many schools starting on Monday, last weekend would have been a big last hurrah party weekend). I know Marvel has a fetish for the mythical first weekend in May (Spider-man, Spidy 3, X-2, X-3 and Iron Man) but the extra buffer week could have helped. True Trek could have followed suit, but if Fox made the decision to switch late enough Paramount might have held off reasoning less competition from Wolverine would offset an extra week before Terminator.