Fearless Forecast - 'Terminator' Outlasts Ben Stiller

This will be the most active weekend of the summer. Memorial Day, for whatever reason, is more of an open marketplace than July 4th. In addition to the May movies still earning big coin, there are two major releases this weekend, plus another that will take about $10 million from somewhere over the next four days. Will the bad reviews hurt Terminator Salvation? Not this weekend, or at least, not on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, where it's poised to make the most money. Currently, the film is only riding a 34% rating at Rotten Tomatoes, meaning two-thirds of the critics aren't recommending it. I've seen some analysts who think the summer thrill ride aspect will outweigh that, but I doubt it, because the general impression was that it would be a good film. It will still do pretty well this weekend, but it won't have the staying power of Star Trek and may have a hard time earning its reported $200 million budget in U.S. ticket sales. There is a chance that Terminator won't even open at number one over the four-day weekend, believe it or not. Night at the Museum - a perfect example of a movie that doesn't need good reviews - is opening in about 500 more theaters, which could be enough to put it over the hump. It's the first family movie of the summer, which is a big, big draw. I wouldn't be surprised if either one of those movies wins the four-day stretch, although Terminator should win the five-day bracket, which includes today. Dance Flick won't be a major player, but again, that's $10 million or so that could go to another one of these new releases. Star Trek will have another good weekend, certainly good enough to place third. The reboot will close in on $200 million by Monday, and it might be the year's top earner by the middle of next week. The Top Five:
1 - Terminator Salvation ($69.5 million, $80 million five-day total)
2 - Night at the Museum ($65 million)
3 - Star Trek ($31 million)
4 - Angels & Demons ($25 million)
5 - Dance Flick ($10 million)