Fearless Forecast - 'Up' Goes Up

There was an article this week about whether or not the box office hot streak was over. I don't think that's true. We've just seen some movies audiences weren't terribly excited about the last two weeks, repeating a trend from last May. But it will pick back up in about a month. Between now and then, as I've said all along, I expect the May movies to continue to build up their bank accounts. Star Trek is the most audience-friendly movie so far, and June will be good for it, considering it's almost a month old, and Up will make most of its money there, too, because the competition in June just isn't that strong. For this week, I think we'll see a typically big debut for a Pixar movie. Last year, Wall-E opened against Wanted, and both films started with $60 million-plus. Up will see a little spike from the 3-D theaters, and that should help Pixar's tenth movie make over $60 million this weekend. The only major new competition is Sam Raimi's Drag Me to Hell, opening on the same weekend that The Strangers called home last year. This should do better than that film all the way around, beginning with an opening weekend in the $25 million range. Outside of Hell, Up will have to navigate Night at the Museum and carryover audience from Angels & Demons, Terminator, and Trek. Obviously, Night at the Museum would be the biggest hurdle, because it's the only other family film. The Top Five:
1 - Up ($63.5 million)
2 - Night at the Museum ($28 million)
3 - Drag Me to Hell ($24 million)
4 - Terminator Salvation ($19 million)
5 - Star Trek ($13 million)