Fearless Forecast - 'Star Trek' Boldly Goes

The early indications are that Star Trek is great, although the box office predictions so far have not had it breaking any records. I don't believe it will be an all-timer in terms of revenue, but I do have it going a little higher than some of the numbers I've seen. First of all, why won't this make $100 million this weekend? Primarily, the Star Trek audience just isn't that big, and there is a fair percentage of moviegoers who don't even like Trek and would be inclined to stay away. Secondly, the reinvention doesn't have big stars in it. Thirdly, it didn't open last week instead of Wolverine. Those are very real factors. Consider that only 11 movies have ever hit $100 million in three days (Iron Man technically did it in four), and that the highest opening weekend ever for the second weekend in May is Van Helsing with just over $50 million, and you begin to see just how hard it is to hit that number now. There's competition from Wolverine, which even with a huge slump is bound to make $25 - $30 million, and that film shares some audience with Star Trek. That's why when people predict things like a $300 million box office run because this "looks awesome," it's never as simple as that. Trek has to fight off several movies this month, and while I think it will win the May box office title, it's not going to be easy. Saturday holds the key for the film this weekend. It officially opens tonight, which is a genius move allowing people to tell friends and co-workers to see it tomorrow. Then the Friday night crowd will repeat that trend. If Saturday blows up like I think it should, Star Trek could duplicate Wolverine's performance. Still, we'll have lots of walk-up and repeat business for this throughout May, which should turn into about a quarter-billion in receipts over the long term. Why is my estimate so much higher than others you'll see? Spider-Man. The first Spidey flick was never expected to be the all-time opening weekend champ when it was released, but the buzz caught on, people went back that weekend to see it again, and it beat projections by a cozy 20% or more. I think Trek has that kind of potential, but with smaller numbers overall. The Top Five:
1 - Star Trek ($81 million) *four-day total
2 - Wolverine ($31 million)
3 - Ghosts of Girlfriends Past ($8.5 million)
4 - Obsessed ($6 million)
5 - Next Day Air ($5.75 million)