Fearless Forecast - 'Hangover' Hangs On Again

There's something cool about a surprise hit, especially a really good one. I loved The Hangover both times I saw it, and while we had a hunch it would do well, nobody anywhere thought we'd have a potential $150 million smash on our hands. The Hangover was not supposed to win the weekend when it squared off against Up and Land of the Lost, but it made $45 million last weekend and has had even better weekday numbers when compared with other summer movies. So we're predicting that it will pick up a second weekend at the top, beating the challenge of The Taking of Pelham 123, and holding off Up one more time. The new Denzel-Travolta action movie is getting average to bad reviews and is only arriving in 3,000 theaters, a smaller number than The Hangover. So while I think it will do OK this weekend, I don't think it's got enough momentum to win the weekend. It could make the move, but with the way The Hangover has held its audience during the week (the top non-holiday Monday of the year, and a better Tuesday than every movie in the past two summers except The Dark Knight, Wall-E, Indy Jones, and Hancock), I just think it's going to have another huge weekend. Eddie Murphy's Imagine That will also hit theaters tomorrow, but we're not expecting in to even sell $15 million worth of tickets, so it's not going to be a big factor. The Top Five:
1 - The Hangover ($31 million)
2 - Up ($29.5 million)
3 - The Taking of Pelham ($26 million)
4 - Imagine That ($12.75 million)
5 - Night at the Museum ($9 million)

Comments

[knives]

Relatives in New York are saying there are lines of people for early screenings of Imagine That. I fear Murphy may actually have a hit. And just when I considered believing in people.

[Get The Big Picture]

Lines for the movie's dates tomorrow or lines for screenings over the weekend or during the past few days? There are lines for almost every early screening. The promotion companies that put them on very often distribute more passes than there are seats so they guarantee a packed house.

[knives]

It's early screenings, and I hope you're right about that.

[Will]

I wouldn't even go to a test screening of "Imagine That"...

[J]

If Hangover hits 30 mil this weekend it'll be close to or past 100. It's outpacing Wedding Crashers which did 209. Although it's about to face much tougher competition, do you think it has a shot at 200 mil ? It's got incredible word of mouth going right now.

[Get The Big Picture]

The only thing standing in its way is the tidal wave of three great weeks out of four beginning with Transformers. That's late in the game, but what helped Wedding Crashers was a desolate landscape after it was released. There was only one movie that hit $30 million in one weekend for the next two months, and that was Dukes of Hazard, which faded immediately. So Wedding Crashers was the last blockbuster of the summer and business just gravitated to it.

If The Hangover does $30 this weekend and conceivably another $32 million from the next Monday - Sunday, I know $180 million is about right. I'll let you know on Monday after I can see the full ten days.

[NIronwolf]

I think Pelham would have more draw under a different name. ;)

Disney channel is running and ad for Imagine That at every break. Dunno how much that really helps though. Only so many little girl out there watching TV, right?