Fearless Forecast: Another Round for 'The Hangover'

Three comedies (four if you count an animated flick) should be at or near the top of the weekend box office. The only thing that remains to be seen is if one of the new movies - The Proposal or Year One - can stop the steamrolling success of The Hangover. By now, you're aware that The Hangover is not just the biggest surprise since Paul Blart, but it's also the year's most consistent performer. We're still waiting for it to dip below $5 million on any day, but that probably won't happen until Monday. Can it go to the top for a third straight weekend? Two movies did it last summer, The Dark Knight and Tropic Thunder - but the difference is, both of those were expected to be number one movies. The Hangover wasn't supposed to beat Land of the Lost, which it has outgrossed by more than $80 million in less than 14 days, and even if it did, there's always Up to contend with. That film is Pixar's second best box office performer, and yet, The Hangover could be the first movie of 2009 to go back-to-back-to-back. Standing in its way are two comedies with modest goals. Sandra Bullock has never been in the $20 million club on opening weekend, which is kind of surprising. Is Ryan Reynolds enough of a difference maker in The Proposal to put this one in position to win the weekend, something Bullock hasn't done in ten years? Well, the first part seems really likely. I think this has a good chance to go over $20 million, but I'm more confident that The Hangover will. Year One will fight for much of the same audience, but terrible reviews won't help, especially in this case. It won't make more than you'd naturally expect - maybe $18 - $21 million - whereas The Hangover practically doubled its projected opening weekend because the reviews and word of mouth were so good. In other words, Year One won't invite anybody new to the party. And then there's Up, the quietest $250 million movie in a long time. It's still rolling along quite well, will zoom past $200 million this weekend, and be with another 10 days or so of catching Star Trek for the top spot of the year. That will be a short-lived honor, what with Transformers aiming for $200 million at almost the exact same time, but Up will still beat every other Pixar movie except Finding Nemo. The Top Five:
1 - The Hangover ($23.5 million)
2 - The Proposal ($22 million)
3 - Up ($20.5 million)
4 - Year One ($19 million)
5 - The Taking of Pelham 123 ($12 million)