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Wednesday
24Jun2009

Fearless Forecast: What Will 'Transformers' Make?

DateWednesday, June 24, 2009 at 2:09PM
We have to jump the gun on our Fearless Forecast and take care of business on Wednesday, since a film that has the potential to be the top earner of the year officially hits/assaults theaters today. I'm referring, of course, to Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which will make a lot of money. The question is how much will it make in the next five days and how much can it keep on making?

The second part of that question is easier to answer, because it should fall like Wolverine and Terminator fell in their second weekends. Even though the first five-day storm will produce well over $100 million, the reviews for Transformers are far worse than they were for those two May movies, and they fell off quickly. It's still a $300 million movie, but beyond that, I couldn't say.

I hated Transformers, and it's that kind of hate that seems to be permeating a lot of the negative reviews. It's not simply that it's a bad movie, but an insulting belching of visual effects designed - to the degree that it was designed - to thump you on the brain more than entertain you. If critics truly mean nothing, explain why this year in particular the good summer movies have done better than the bad ones. Word of mouth goes a long way, and I think we'll see the impact of that on Transformers, too, just probably not this weekend.

Early box office tracking had Revenge of the Fallen in the $160 million range over five days. That was the number a month ago, and that was the number about a week ago. Then people got the chance to see it. Sure, it sold a lot of midnight screening tickets and those add up, but how much it will make Wednesday is less of a factor in the grand scheme of things as how much it will make on Saturday and Sunday.Speaking of the midnight numbers, they were around $16 million, the third best of all time behind Dark Knight and Revenge of the Sith.

If we compare it across the board to Sith, then we are looking at about $150 - $170 million over the next few days. Not as much built-in audience, though, this time around.

I expect very brisk business through Friday, and then Saturday may be a tipping point. Either people will stay away because of the bad notices or they won't care. By the time it gets to Saturday, Revenge of the Fallen should be around $100 million. Curiously, because the first movie was released on a Monday, it never had a $30 million day, which should be the case today and Friday for the new movie. Saturday will most likely do that kind of business as well.

All told: $145 million over five days. A good haul by any measure. That's roughly in the Spider -Man 2 ballpark, although people actually liked that movie when it opened on a Wednesday back in 2004.

Because of the five-day layout, we won't predict the top five this week. Also, the other movies are rather moot over the next few days, anyway.

AuthorColin Boyd | | in , | Print ArticlePrint Article | | Comment6 Comments |

Reader Comments (6)

Nothing to do with the quality of movies or the critics

Has a ton to do with disposable income
who can afford $19 for the ticket $10 for coke and popcorn
to see a movie that sucks

when I had cash it was I don't care if sucks I wanna see this explosion, orthis actress, or some such stuff

I got better things to spend that cash on right now

I don't have to see year one to know it sucks
I can seejack black's in ti that's usually enough

it's just about the cash flow

Wednesday, June 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterPsyko Tek

This movie was garbage, but then again all Michael Bay movies have been for the most part. One can only hope this movie drops off like a rock and tthe scathing reviews actually make a difference. Otherwise, studios will think that good writing and acting aren't necessary to make money.
But then again, as Tommy Lee Jones once said, " a person is smart, but people are dumb." If the masses keep flocking to this crap, then all we will get is more crap to flock to.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMRPigg

If you're just looking for a fun, action movie, then Transformers is it. I know a lot of people who really enjoyed it (including myself). We weren't looking for a great film, but something that was action-packed and fun. I don't think the reviews will hurt that much because this is what the movie is and what it always was.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAlex T

I enjoyed it for what it was, now I can nit pick a lot of places but I have seen so much worse and so much more unenjoyable films in my life. I think all the critics just really wanted to be surprised and swept off there feet by this movie.

It was not as bad as most critics made it out to be, I really think you guys made the movie more enjoyable because I was bracing for the worse and I have have seen much worse. So thank you Colin for make the movie more enjoyable because I set the bar low.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBrandon

How curious it is that so many new posters appear on movie review blogs in support of major films that are being dogged by critics. The film goes away and they all evaporate, coincidence? Do such posters really only have opinions on one film or one type of film? Or are they merely fanboys and studio shills out to pump up a film destined to crash and burn?

Thursday, June 25, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAsana

Yous are all gays Transfirmers has great effects its and action packed movie with alien robots its not supposed to have tha best story line or anything its just a fun movie for familys and and big waynes to go see.i thought tha movie was excelent tbh

Wednesday, July 1, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterLeonard

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