Wednesday
01Jul2009
Fearless Forecast - Repeat of 'The Fallen'
Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 5:52PM
The final five-day numbers for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen were just a tad lower than the estimates, which is to say, this thing was an absolute monster in its debut. Can it hold? That's been a popular question posed by some of the regular readers here at The Big Picture, and I think for this weekend, it certainly can.
1 - Transformers ($57 million)
2 - Ice Age ($55 million)
3 - Public Enemies ($26 million)
4 - The Hangover ($10 million)
5 - The Proposal ($7 million)
1 - Transformers ($57 million)
2 - Ice Age ($55 million)
3 - Public Enemies ($26 million)
4 - The Hangover ($10 million)
5 - The Proposal ($7 million)
Reader Comments (6)
Maybe no one wanted to go up against robots or boy wizards? Remember what happened to flicks that opened a week or two before The Dark Knight? Near obliteration when the Bat landed. Perhaps with that in mind, the studios would rather get their films out as early as possible and soak up as much cash as they can before becoming an afterthought.
The release dates could have been more deliberately planned to give a strong lead into June but then it's about making money not keeping things lively and exciting. Had films like Wolverine, Terminator and Angels & Demons performed more impressively there would have been some carry over into June. That they didn't more or less left June to stand on its own with Transformers to shore up the back end. It then bridges the gap well enough into July in time to hand off the reigns to Potter which will hold it own into August.
August doesn't really look to have any particular blockbuster material but I could be wrong. Then the summer's pretty much a wash as September rolls in. Makes for a very short summer indeed.
I thought you had Public Enemies very high on your top grossing films of the year list? Why the back step?
TRANSFORMERS 2 vs. TERMINATOR SALVATION
A piece comparing the two movies. Might be surprised by the winner of this one. Also, there's a poll where you can vote. Currently, TERMINATOR SALVATION appears to be ahead by a hair.
blogs.amctv.com/future-of-classic/2009/06/transformers-revenge- of-the-fallen-or-terminator-salvation.php
The world just can't get enough of angry robots, can it? As Michael Bay's sequel to his 2007 hit hits theaters, what better movie to pit it against than this summer's other killer-robot movie, Terminator Salvation? So which of these scifi blockbusters pitches the bigger tent pole?
No, I didn't have Public Enemies among my top grossing films, but I thought it looked like one of the best. Here's what I said about its box office potential back in April:
"Even with Johhny Depp and Christian Bale, it just feels like the timing is wrong for this one. I don't have any doubt that it will do well, but it's not going to stand in the way of Transformers or Harry Potter. It's more counterprogramming than blockbuster. "
Of course, I was dead wrong about Terminator, Wolverine, and Angels & Demons...
I just re-read your 2009 Summer Box Office Preview. Interesting stuff. You mentioned something along the lines of June needing a surprising $200 mil movie before studios would start releasing potential blockbusters during that frame. Do you think The Hangover would apply? It certainly looks like it'll hit $200 mil in the next couple of weeks. June seems like such a wasteland this year. It hasn't always been that way has it?
In the current structure where studios hope for repeat performances on specific weekends (like Warner Bros. capturing the July 15th release dates for the next three years because Dark Knight did well and Marvel coveting the first weekend of May), yes, June is a forgotten month. Outside of Transformers, which is kind of playing the July 4th role, the big movie was supposed to Land of the Lost. But even then, I think the best case scenario was probably $140, $150 million.
The Hangover may change that perspective a little bit, but because it wasn't a by-product of massive marketing, I'm not sure if the studios know what made it a hit. We do (it was one of the most entertaining movies all year) but it's not like Hollywood has ever listened to the cries of "Just make better movies" before.
You can tell by their release patterns that the studios honestly believe the weekend makes the difference. The Dark Knight was enormous so Warner Bros. uprooted Potter to open it the same weekend. Next year, it'll be Nolan's Inception. Then Potter again. In 2012, I'm sure they're hoping to get another Batman movie there. They've all had good luck in May with something or other, so each studio is bound and determined to crowd the first month of summer. Could Wolverine have made $170 million if it had come out the last week of April instead of seven days later? Of course.
Could Star Trek have been over $300 million by now if it opened on June 5th and didn't have to sacrifice two weeks of audience to movies like Angels & Demons, Transformers, and Up? It wouldn't be any worse off, that's for sure.