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Wednesday
15Jul2009

Fearless Forecast - How High Will 'Potter' Go After Breaking Midnight Record?

DateWednesday, July 15, 2009 at 10:38AM
We saw a hint of this last week when it was revealed that Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince was earning more than Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in online advance ticket sales. Those numbers led to the biggest midnight opening ever: $22.2 million. The question now becomes how much of that will carry over into the five-day weekend?

While easily the most successful movie franchise of all time around the world, the Potter movies are never threats to break records in the U.S., at least not since the first movie opened in 2001. Only one film has topped $300 million, kind of the new benchmark for mammoth tentpole movies, and only one has an opening weekend over $100 million. Half-Blood Prince will likely be the first of three Potter movies in a row to accomplish both feats, but how long it takes to get to $300 million and how much business is left after that remains to be seen.

The $20 million midnight puts the film about $4 million ahead of Transformers in the same time frame, and that movie went on to make $90 million on Wednesday and Thursday and another $110 million or so on the weekend proper. Can Potter do the same thing? Historically, you'd have to say no, and I'd also add not to put too much stock in the $20 million midnight draw, as impressive as it is. I do think this will hit $100 million this weekend, but I doubt it's going to pull in that same amount on Wednesday and Thursday. I just can't support the argument with anything we've seen in the franchise.

For the five-day frame, because I'm a believer in good reviews helping more than bad reviews hurting, this could be the biggest Potter movie to date, thanks in large part to a wide open playing field on both sides of the calendar and an advantageous opening date in general. I have a feeling this film will contend for a top five all-time start over a five-day period, and it could get as high as number three, just ahead of Revenge of the Sith. The ceiling, in my estimation, is about $185 million, with about $110 million of that, maybe a little less, coming between Friday and Sunday.

I think the worst it could do - especially now that we've seen the midnight numbers - is in the $165 - $170 million range. But it's the last big event of the summer, the film is getting outstanding reviews in a lot of places, and even if it weren't, it would still make $130 - $145 million in five days.

My $185 million estimate puts it about 10% below Transformers and its $200 million start. It's possible that this could hit that number, sure, but again, I'll pay a little more attention to the track record of the series and shoot a bit lower.

The Top Five:
1 - Harry Potter ($185 million *five-day total)
2 - Ice Age ($17 million)
3 - Transformers ($14 million)
4 - Bruno ($12 million)
5 - Public Enemies ($7 million)

AuthorColin Boyd | | in , | Print ArticlePrint Article | | CommentPost a Comment |

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