Box Office - 'Harry Potter' Eyes $160 Million Opening

Sure, the opening frame for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince will be big, but it's looking more and more likely that it won't be that big. Despite $58 million on its opening day - $22 million of which came in midnight offerings - Potter hasn't shown the same kind of force in the two days since. On Thursday, there was a big decline, down to $22 million, and The Los Angeles Times reports that Friday's numbers weren't phenomenal, either, increasing to roughly $26 million. That lowers the bar on how much the movie can conceivably make over the five-day period. We had it earning $185 million in our predictions on Wednesday, driven by advance ticket sales and a lack of competition, but it doesn't appear that those two factors will be able to put the movie over $170 million. The Times forecasts $160 million overall based on the Friday numbers, which is a safe bet given that the film has already made $107 million and will likely earn a tad more on Saturday than it did on Friday. The last Potter movie, Order of the Phoenix, also opened on a summer Wednesday, and its Thursday and Friday totals are consistent with the new movie, but lower overall. Should Half-Blood Prince repeat that formula, today should earn the film about $30 million with another $24 million or so due on Sunday. That would only account for $161 million, and it's hard to see it doing much better than that based on the Thursday and Friday results and the long history of the franchise. Of course, every movie is different and this film has the strongest reviews in years for a Potter movie, so it's possible that Saturday and Sunday could be a few million dollars bigger, but not enough to turn this into an historic opening. There's a big gap between the fifth and sixth best five-day starts, so it's unlikely that Potter will crack the top five. It will, however, be about $20 million better than Order of the Phoenix through the same period. Why won't it make appreciably more than its predecessor? My only guess is that the franchise isn't converting new viewers. By this point, you're either on board or you're not. I mean, the series has been so consistent over the years, with only one movie over $300 million and only one under $250 million, that it sure seems like this is hitting the same crowd every time. The only debate left is how close this can come to being the top movie in the series. It would only have to double its first five days over the course of the next three months to pull that off, which should be easier to do later in summer and with solid critical and fan response than it would be if it were a bad movie released in a more competitive time. Internationally, however, is a bigger hill to climb. Sorcerer's Stone made $974 million back in 2001 and 2002, two-thirds of it coming overseas. Phoenix made $938 million. Half-Blood Prince should be in that club somewhere, but whether or not it becomes the fifth movie to break a billion dollars is hard to predict.

Comments

[sahith]

the worst Hp movie ever, thats is the only reason for it fall,,

[Brandon]

Just got back from the Saturday 9:50 showing, and it was fully packed unlike the Thursday night showing I saw. I think it might surprise this weekend.

[Sean]

GO POTTER GO!!!

I hope it does beat previous records!

Im personally going to go see it AGAIN this time around in IMAX in a couple of days!!!!