Fearless Forecast: 'Potter' Fights Off Guinea Pigs, Scary Kids, and Katherine Heigl

For the first time in almost two months, we have three wide releases opening in theaters this weekend. That's why, when we look at some of the biggest movies ever, like Dark Knight and even Transformers and the new Harry Potter, the amount of competition often means as much as the quality. If three movies combine to make $60 million, that's going to put some kind of dent in everything around it. It's better than having one movie that makes $60 million in three days, if you're one of those tentpole flicks, but it still has a cumulative effect. This week, we're treated to The Ugly Truth, G-Force, and Orphan. Of the three, Orphan appears to have the best crop of reviews and might even carry the most interest, since we haven't had a movie like that in a while. None of them will be in 4,000 theaters like Potter, so I expect another easy victory for the boy wizard, as he ascends over the $225 million mark this weekend. The weekday holds have been very good so far, around $9 million a day, so that will add another $35 - $40 million to the $160 million opening, and then we're expecting about a 55% drop from the first weekend to the second weekend, or just north of $35 million. Jerry Bruckheimer's G-Force looks like one of those movies that has exactly three days to build its audience. It's a tremendously hokey idea, and if families don't run right out to see it, they never will. It should do pretty well because of its target audience, but this the same period when Space Chimps and Fly Me to the Moon was released last year. So you never know. I don't think The Ugly Truth is going to be a huge factor, but it will be competitive at the start. Curiously, this is an R-rated film, but if they're going for Katherine Heigl's crowd, that's not a good way to do it. Perhaps the thought process is that Sex and the City drew a female audience and it was rated R, but that was on TV for years. This movie, one dependent on Gerard Butler's comedic skills and one currently holding a 10% approval at Rotten Tomatoes, does not have that sort of background with the audience. The final new release is Orphan, a well-marketed suspense movie with lower expectations than the rest. It's not star-driven but instead preys on our ongoing curiosity in evil kid movies. It has the best chance to break out among the three new movies simply because there's nothing else like it in theaters. The Ugly Truth will still be competing with the surprising staying power of The Proposal and The Hangover, and G-Force is wading into Ice Age and Potter territory. I still don't believe Orphan will have the best weekend in terms of gross numbers, but when we roll out the top five on Sunday, its performance may stand out the most. The Top Five:
1 - Harry Potter ($36 million)
2 - G-Force ($25 million)
3 - The Ugly Truth ($21 million)
4 - Orphan ($15 million)
5 - Ice Age ($9 million)