Wednesday
08Jul2009
'Harry Potter' Outpacing 'Transformers' in Pre-Sales
Wednesday, July 8, 2009 at 5:05AM
It's a little surprising to see that Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince is outselling Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in advance ticket purchases, but Fandango issued a press release to that effect on Tuesday. Now, there are a few factors behind Half-Blood Prince selling 65% of all tickets on one of the world's biggest movie ticket seller. The first is that it's Harry Potter. The second is that after July 15th, there's not much to generate pre-sale interest.
Reader Comments (7)
"It's a little surprising to see that Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince is outselling Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in advance ticket purchases"
What's surprising is the number of times you've made reference to this film's potential as if it were some also-ran in the overall box office race this year. When I first saw an earlier post where you remarked a wonder about this film's chances, I took it as humor. However, as you have continued to downplay it, especially against a film like Transformers that you railed against... one must wonder, why?
Because as well as the films have performed, only one of them has broken $300 million domestically and unlike Transformers, they aren't necessarily enormous opening weekend films. The third X-Men movie had a better debut than every Potter film.
We have a pretty good idea of what these movies are going to do by this point, and movie six is a strange time to see a big spike. And if you've paid attention, you've noticed that I've had this movie in second place for the yearly box office all along, ahead of everything but Transformers. I haven't downplayed it at all, but if it comes within shouting distance of the $200 million Revenge of the Fallen made in five days, it would be a tremendous surprise - Only one Potter film in five has made over $120 million in that span.
Colin- Do you think with so many of these movies that the number of people going to see it now could grow? I would think that the audience that has already seen most of these would be almost a lock to go see this one. So does the huge layoff in between the last two help its potential audience base grow through people who have never seen any potter picking up the DVD's and even younger audiences picking up the books?
All I can tell you is the first movie made the most money and that the most recent one wasn't within $25 million of that amount, so it did a little more than 90% of the business of Sorcerer's Stone. Even though Goblet of Fire is the second-best movie in terms of domestic box office by a couple million dollars, what I think has happened is that parents don't need to go with their kids, because the six- and seven-year-olds from the first movie are now almost able to drive.
For the record, my summer box office deal had Half-Blood Prince making over $300 million, which does have a lot to do with the lack of competition after it's released. But only three have made over $290 million, and the other two are in the mid-200s. We certainly haven't seen steady, consistent growth, even though with the exception of the fourth movie (in my opinion), the series has gotten better with every chapter.
This one's getting very good reviews, and the PG rating could help (the PG-13 might have been a little limiting in the past for parents who did want to accompany their kids but waited for the DVD because of content concerns), but as for picking up new audience, I dunno. Haven't really seen that impact so far.
In claiming surprise that this Potter is outpacing Transformers in advance sales, adding that the sales pace has to do with there being a lack of anything else around to generate interest, that yes Potter is outpacing Transformers but the latter had a little more competition and in aligning it (by its PG rating no less) to Prisoner of Azkaban "which is the least stupendously successful of the films"... can all be taken as downplaying this sixth installment.
So yes, you have listed Half Blood Prince as second only to Transformers in the year's top box office but for every compliment there's an almost obligatory undercut. Well yes it's doing this but only because of that is downplaying. Potter is doing well because of the strength it has more than some lack of anything else on the movie calendar to stir interest. While only one of the films has crossed $300m I wouldn't be so quickly dismissive of two others that passed the $290m mark. That you did so though... is also downplaying.
I'm not undercutting it at all. I'm merely looking at all the possible variables: Only one has made over $300 million, only one had a weekend over $100 million, and Transformers had the second best five-day total ever. You wouldn't find it "a little surprising" if a Potter movie, which has one top ten entry in the five-day charts - some $60 million below Transformers - supplanted the second best opening ever?
The average take for a Potter flick is $282 million in the U.S. I'm exceeding that in my prediction by almost $30 million. What do you think it will do? $350 million? $400 million? If so, why? And based on what?
"You wouldn't find it "a little surprising" if a Potter movie, which has one top ten entry in the five-day charts - some $60 million below Transformers - supplanted the second best opening ever?"
No and I say that given the amount of pent up anticipation for this film and the popularity of the franchise. Transformers 2 is by no means snubbed at all in my saying that either, it performed well in spite of itself and reviews. However, if advance ticket sales are to be any indication, this Potter is beating a more powerful box office drum. The only potential hold up it faces in maxing out its 5 day opening is the delayed release to IMAX screens.
Just how good it will do is hard to say at this point and $350m is probably being a bit overly optimistic. As it stands now though, the sixth installment is considered the most favorite book in the series by many so there's a very good chance for it to claim top spot of all Potter films to date.