Fearless Forecast - 'Brüno' Spanks the Competition

Audiences have been responding to raunchy comedies quite a bit in the past few years. I suppose Judd Apatow really broke down that wall again, and with last year's Role Models and this summer with The Hangover, R-rated is where it's at. Welcome back, Sacha Baron Cohen. Universal reportedly paid Cohen something like $40 million to distribute Brüno, which arrives in theaters this weekend and could reimburse the studio dollar-for-dollar in three or four days. The Borat crowd has been waiting for this, and they were a pretty big crowd three years ago. I guess the same rules apply to this that would apply to a sequel, because the structure's the same and the star's the same. And that $35 - $40 million should be plenty to win this weekend's box office. It would take near repeat performances from last week's top two films to match that amount, and those totals were quite a bit lower than the three-day projections for each movie. So barring some weird event where a well-reviewed comedy that already has a built-in audience fails to deliver, Brüno wins the weekend almost by default. Ice Age, The Proposal, and Public Enemies will continue to do what you'd expect, all finishing in the top five losing about 40% from the previous week. Newcomer I Love You Beth Cooper doesn't have enough star power to overcome its complete lack of advertising, so it shouldn't generate more than six or seven million bucks in 1,900 theaters, if it soaks up that much business. That's more than twice as many theaters as Cohen's Borat debuted in, but that film made over $26 million in its debut. Now...about this Transformers, we know it had the second most productive five-day opening in history and reached $300 million faster than anything but Dark Knight, which is a direct reaction to the first five days, specifically the first two days. The Bayhem has only grossed about $215 million since day three. Credit the marketing and advertising and the name recognition for that. Everything after the opening weekend is reflective of the audience that was on the fence about seeing it in the first place. The conversions just haven't been that strong. The movie may not $400 million domestically, which seemed like a pretty good goal on June 28th. It's at $310 million right now, and that's ten days removed from $200 million. So do the math: This has slowed considerably. After this weekend, it will probably be at around $335 million. Probably $355 - $360 million the week after that, and then it's riding on fumes. It's too early to calculate exactly how big the opening weekend will be in the overall scope of its performance but over half the audience will very likely come in the first five days of its release. That's a horrible percentage if it holds true. The Top Five:
1 - Brüno ($39 million)
2 - Ice Age ($24 million)
3 - Transformers ($19 million)
4 - Public Enemies ($15 million)
5 - The Proposal ($7 million)

Comments

[whitewolf2k3]

I think i'll forgo Bruno for The Hurt Locker...amazingly it's actually opening here in Scottsdale tomorrow.

[Get The Big Picture]

And it's worth double the price.

[Honz Brix]

I'd do the same but unfortunately I don't when if at all the Hurt Locker is opening in Utica

[Jonny]

I don't care whatever anybody says. I am seeing Bruno tomorrow night. Loved Borat. Just looking at the guy makes me laugh let alone the previews. It will be awesome.