Fearless Forecast - 'District 9' Heads for Number One

There is a segment of the moviegoing population that's really excited about this weekend's biggest release, District 9. I'm not certain how well it will translate to actual dollars, though. Over the past couple of weeks there has been a lot of comment around the internet about the role of movie critics and box office performance. This is one of those movies where the reviews will matter. Right now, District 9 is receiving heaps of praise and because it's intended for a more discerning sci-fi audience than Transformers, a critical evaluation of its merits is more welcome. Being a rated R film and being not the least bit glossy or externally marketable (action figures, lunchboxes, etc.), District 9 can afford to not interject a cheap laugh for a 13-year-old or tart up movie posters with beautiful women, because the core audience doesn't need that stuff. And the core audience for any movie makes up the majority of its opening weekend business. Good reviews help on the second and third weekends, after people ask their friends if there any good movies out. So the numbers might not be overpowering this weekend, but it could open at number one and I'll already predict that a lower percentage of District 9's overall business will come over the next three days than will be the case for G.I. Joe, which means it will likely have better staying power with audiences. There are a few other new releases, but only one has a real opportunity to make noise, and that's The Time Traveler's Wife. Unless I'm forgetting something, I don't recall a major studio romantic drama this summer. So, by default, this will get a bigger crowd than if it opened the week after The Notebook or something. I don't think it can challenge for number one, just because it's not in 3,500 theaters or something, but it could do well enough to start. After that, it depends on how many women swoon. The other new films - Ponyo, which is getting the biggest push ever for a Miyazaki film in the U.S., The Goods, and Bandslam - aren't going to have enough representation nationwide to be that competitive, although Ponyo should do very well considering the number of theaters. The Top Five:
1 - District 9 ($24.5 million)
2 - G.I. Joe ($23 million)
3 - The Time Traveler's Wife ($17 million)
4 - Julie & Julia ($13 million)
5 - Harry Potter ($6.75 million)

Comments

[Vince]

Do you know how many theaters Ponyo is opening in? I hear it's barely wide from some sources, from others I heard over 1000 theaters (and I'm pretty sure that's a lie).

Oh and the movie is called "Bandslam" not "Bandcamp", just a note.

[Get The Big Picture]

Oh, sorry. Bandslam it is. Ponyo, last I heard, was getting 800 theaters this weekend.

[debt relief]

Ponyo looks brilliant and I love all of Miyazaki's film but it won't be a hit in the U.S. District 9 looks like the money maker for this weekend but it will be close with G.I. Joe and the Time Travaelers Wife.

[Jeremy]

I guess about a 60% drop for GI Joe is par for the course, but I wasn't expecting it to make $23mil this week. It seems kind of high, but if you play the %'s it works out about right. Is it bad that I'm actually rooting against a movie to perform well? It's not like it's a sport or anything, but I find myself following the boxoffice like a penant race.

Sheesh, I'm a boring person.