Fearless Forecast: A Box Office Bloodbath

I really don't have a handle on this weekend's box office. It's not very strategically planned, unlike most of them throughout the year. We've got two profitable horror franchises going head-to-head, which I don't believe I've ever seen before, plus the carryover from Inglourious Basterds and District 9. And if you're looking at audience duplication, I'd say it's pretty high across the board. So who wins? I'll just go with the one that has the most commercials. And from my perspective, that's The Final Destination. I really have no other gauge. Well, that's not entirely true: Each film in the series has opened better than the last and they have slightly better staying power than Rob Zombie's Halloween showed two years ago. Yeah, that one opened big for Labor Day ($26 million), but it faded quickly. In fact, with 45% of its domestic gross coming on the first weekend, that's a lot bigger tumble over the rest of the theatrical schedule than any of the movies in the Final Destination movies. The last two FD flicks top out around the magical 33% number, meaning they can still draw a crowd after the first three days. So in addition to the greater likelihood that you'll see commercials for Final Destination and that could influence your decision to go to the megaplex, Halloween II may not return 70% or more of the audience that flocked to see it two years ago, or at least for the first weekend. It would be a close race between the two horror films even if they weren't opening on the same day, but this battle is going to be awfully hard to call. The competition between the two films isn't the full story, though. Inglourious Basterds could play spoiler if both movies take a bit out of each other's audience, which they absolutely should. Since no Final Destination movie has opened with over $20 million and since I expect a smaller audience for Halloween II than its predecessor, it's possible if not entirely probably that Basterds will be spurred by the great reviews and word of mouth and wind up winning the weekend. In order for Tarantino's latest to hit $20 million, it can only afford a 45% drop this weekend. That's conceivable, and I thought the same thing about District 9, but that sacrificed over 50% of its receipts the second weekend. It should be close no matter which film takes the top spot, however. But if one of the two new releases should do significantly worse, suffering from so much direct competition, it'll be Halloween. The Top Five:
1 - Final Destination ($19.5 million)
2 - Inglourious Basterds ($18 million)
3 - Halloween II ($17 million)
4 - District 9 ($9.5 million)
5 - G.I. Joe ($6.5 million)

Comments

[SEAN]

Yeah it is a tough call, but for some reason I think Holloween 2 will take the 2nd place spot...rather than Inglorious ...

Dont know why, just a hunch, even though Id like for Basterds to be number 1 but thats just me lol