Fearless Forecast - Go 'Joe'!

Despite not being available to most critics, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra will feel no ill effects. Not this weekend, anyway. It bears repeating as often as necessary that opening weekends aren't necessarily instructive of what the entire theatrical run will look like. If they were, Transformers would eventually be the third-highest-grossing movie of all time. Actually, it would be second, because if if were all about the first weekend, Titanic would have translated to about $90 million in the U.S. So G.I. Joe will do well over the next few days because the people who really want to see it will support it early. After that, it's more about the quality of the film, which is why The Hangover is really the story of this summer. It's the only movie that will make about $225 million after its debut weekend. Of course, since nobody's seeing G.I. Joe, it's hard to say whether or not it will do good business in the second or third weekends. It should run away with this weekend, at the very least. There is competition, but nothing direct. That's why it's a good idea to release Julie and Julia the same day, following the Mamma Mia! formula from last year where a completely different crowd made that film a solid opener against The Dark Knight. As far as the numbers go, I'd say it will do less than a third of G.I. Joe but more than anything else. It's too bad nobody's seeing Funny People. I don't know how much left it has based on the daily numbers this week. I don't think it's a great film but it's always fascinating what audiences respond to and what they immediately and consistently ignore. The way I see it, Funny People will be lucky to keep 50% of its audience, which would put its ten-day total barely over $40 million. The Top Five:
1 - G.I. Joe ($53 million)
2 - Julie and Julia ($15 million)
3 - Harry Potter ($11.5 million)
4 - Funny People ($11 million)
5 - G-Force ($9 million)

Comments

[A Real American Zero]

No way in hell G.I. Blow makes close to $50 Mil...not if there is a god

[Vince]

This is just me, but I remember a few months back when everyone thought "Fast & Furious" looked horrible and wasn't going to top $40 million...then it broke the record for biggest April Weekend opener.

Not that "G.I. Joe" will break any records, but I hear that the film is going to play extremely well in Middle America- the same people that sent "Bruno" crashing after its first week. I think it could definitely hit $50 million; all the bad hype is coming from the fanboys...who aren't as vocal as they used to be.

[Nelson]

35 mil is my prediction for GI Joe

[Get The Big Picture]

Well, it's hitting 4,000 theaters, which is a pretty heavy saturation. It would have to do pretty poorly to not break $40 million in its opening weekend.

[Michael]

Gotta tell you, I saw an advance screening of this movie last night, and it was AWESOME! Plenty of action, great story, fantastic fight sequences and the special effects were amazing! This was definitely a great movie, and I'm sure that will translate into some big bucks at the box office.