Thursday
Sep172009
Thursday, September 17, 2009 at 8:50AM Fearless Forecast: Mostly Sunny for 'Cloudy'
It won't be a stellar weekend at the box office, however there will be a vast improvement in the performance of the top ten over last week's number. If you'll recall, we only had two movies - I Can Do Bad All By Myself and 9 - that earned over $10 million from Friday to Sunday, and 9 just barely broke that barrier. The box office has actually been down since The Final Destination opened; that weekend was 25% off the previous week's business.

So it will rebound slightly now, but it won't hit those heady highs of summer. Three new movies are poised to go over ten million, but really only one has a chance to be a big hit by traditional standards. The 3-D Sony animated movie Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs might be a little too irreverent for family audiences over the long haul, but adults in particular should have a good time with it. Because it's the only movie opening in over 3,000 theaters, it has a natural advantage. And because it's the only 'toon that invites younger viewers in about two months, that won't hurt.
There has been so much written about Jennifer's Body and Megan Fox over the past few months that the performance of the movie seems like an afterthought, if it's a thought at all. But because it's fairly low budget it should be successful even if it's kind of a one-weekend wonder. And wonder may be making too big a thing out of it. But if it hits $10 million this weekend and goes on to do $30 million in the US, Fox could argue that it will have been worth it. Certainly, the film will do better than Fox's fall 2008 release, How to Lose Friends and Alienate People, which made about $41.
Steven Soderbergh's The Informant! isn't opening in enough theaters to be a huge player this weekend, but should audiences find it in the next couple of weeks - and Matt Damon has a good relationship with audiences - then we won't read much into its $10 million start. I do wonder if Warner Bros. will expand from the 2,400 theaters it has the movie in early. Usually you don't see it spike from an already relatively high number, but if it does really well, it's not unheard of to add a few hundred theaters down the line.
Finally, there's Love Happens with Jennifer Aniston and Aaron Eckhart. Don't like its chances. And I need to have the logic explained to me here: I've seen more commercials for this movie in the past week than two of the other new releases put together and Universal has it in fewer than 2,000 theaters. What good is casting Jennifer Aniston if you don't put the movie where a bunch of women can see it? I just can't figure out why it's being marketed so heavily but is in the least number of theaters this weekend. So I'd be surprised if it can overcome a deficit of anywhere from 600 to 1,200 theaters to shake up the top five this weekend.
The Top Five:
1 - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs ($24 million)
2 - Jennifer's Body ($11.5 million)
3 - The Informant! ($11 million)
4 - I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($11 million)
5 - Love Happens ($7 million)

1 - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs ($24 million)
2 - Jennifer's Body ($11.5 million)
3 - The Informant! ($11 million)
4 - I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($11 million)
5 - Love Happens ($7 million)


Reader Comments (3)
"How to Lose Friends and Influence People"
Wrong title. It is Alienate, not Influence.
Sorry. I'll amend. And my apologies to the 13 people who paid matinee price to see it.
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