Fearless Forecast - Mmmm...More 'Meatballs'

It could be a repeat performance for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs by the time the tickets are counted on Monday. Earlier in the week, I kind of had my mind made up that it would be, but the weekday numbers have been discouraging. An 85% drop on Monday followed by a much closer race with The Informant! on Tuesday than you'd expect, and on while it should improve a little on Wednesday and Thursday, it may not be strong enough to pull out the victory over Surrogates. The new Bruce Willis sci-fi flick is the only movie that really has a chance to dethrone Meatballs, though. Disney isn't blitzing the multiplexes the way it normally would in late September, but with the first two Toy Story movies back in theaters next weekend in 3-D, it should still be a good month for the House of Mouse. Beyond Surrogates, there is another new sci-fi film, Pandorum, which has very little chance of making a huge dent even though it's getting a run comparable to its competition. Supposing Friday night viewing is strong and those audience members spread the word, it has a better chance, but I'd still be surprised if we see a $20 million weekend. Then again, District 9 was one of the surprise hits of the summer using that exact formula, so it's possible if not probable. Fame will eat into the audience for Chance of Meatballs, but not exclusively; that target audience is squarely teens, while Meatballs is more family viewing. But there's name recognition, parents will feel safe dropping off their 12-year-olds to see it, and it, too, has a chance to exceed our estimate. However, we're not going to predict a $25 million opening here. I'd rather shoot under than way over. The Top Five:
1 - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs ($19 million)
2 - Surrogates ($18 million)
3 - Fame ($15.5 million)
4 - Pandorum ($8 million)
5 - The Informant! ($7 million)

Comments

[Vince]

Yeah I think "Fame" could surprise and take the weekend (barely) with around 18-20 million. There's a ton of hype for the female teenage audience, the same audience that made "Hannah Montana" and "High School Musical 3" hits. It also has a teeny bit more appeal to the male audience- the film seems less squeaky clean, more urban, kinda like the "Step Up" movies.

[Get The Big Picture]

You could be right. Then again, the Jonas Brothers movie absolutely tanked, so it's still a crapshoot. I'm also leaning against it because it's MGM, and well, I question a lot of things that studio does anymore.