Fearless Forecast - 'Avatar' Approaches $500 Million

It won't quite get to half a billion dollars this weekend, but Avatar will hit that mark next week, probably Tuesday or Wednesday. Keep in mind, I'm giving it a fifth win at the box office and only dropping its grab about 25% from last week, so reaching the milestone any sooner would be even more exceptional than the $80 million it made in its third week. When will The Dark Knight fall? Oh, I'd say by the end of the month. Is Titanic still safe? Tough to say. Avatar is still exploding on the weekends even though its weekday numbers have cooled off every week. But we know that it will hit $500 very soon and should get to $550 million by no later than mid-February. Then it's a race against time, because Alice in Wonderland gobbles up the IMAX screens on March 5th, Fox will have opened its next hopeful blockbuster (Percy Jackson) on the 12th, and so on. Ultimately, it depends on how much the movie is still making by the time the Oscars roll around on March 7th. If it's no longer doing $1 million a day and it doesn't win the major awards, Fox will probably slash the number of theaters. That won't make history any easier to grasp. If things go its way - because, let's face it, James Cameron could use some good fortune, right? - then The King of the World might be King of the Hill again. This weekend, Avatar will be challenged by The Book of Eli. It's a true wide release - over 3,000 theaters - but Eli is getting more bad reviews than good ones. That may or may not matter with Denzel Washington, because he's a solid $20 million-plus opening weekend guy. Not many of those around these days. His last major release to not open with that much money was The Bone Collector, which debuted with $16 million. Put another way: If it's on at least 2,700 screens, Denzel always makes $20 million. So look for something in that range here, as well, but even if it has a great weekend - say, closer to $30 million - it won't be enough to whip Avatar. Jackie Chan's The Spy Next Door, which may wind up being the year's worst film if the reviews are any indication, will try to swipe audience from Alvin and the Chipmunks. It'll work, but only to a point, but I don't see Spy getting off to a great start. Speaking of bad starts, welcome to the party, The Lovely Bones. Yeah, this one will tank. Hard. Stanley Tucci has a shot at an Oscar nomination, but beyond that, the film has been very, very disappointing. Worse, it's critics who say that and the film looks and feels as though it was intended just for critics. A $100 million movie, Bones isn't seeing much marketing (not on the scale of most movies its size), and Paramount already knows it can't ride acclaim on this one. It will be interesting to see how much money it ultimately makes, but I predict it won't last long in US theaters. It's too dark and too slow and not very good, especially when weighed against something like Avatar. The Top Five:
1 - Avatar ($38.5 million)
2 - The Book of Eli ($24.5 million)
3 - The Spy Next Door ($10 million)
4 - Sherlock Holmes ($9 million)
5 - The Lovely Bones ($7.5 million)

Comments

[Jeremy]

the sigourney weaver picture. thank you.