Box Office - 'Eli' Narrowly Beats 'Avatar' on Friday

There are two stories at the box office this morning. The first is the surprising start for The Lovely Bones, which may wind up doing $20 million this weekend, which is probably double most industry expectations. The second is The Book of Eli, which charged out of the gates to take down Avatar. Again, that's just for one day; James Cameron is still a better bet to win the weekend based on the consistency of his film from the moment it was released. Eli hit $11.7 million on Friday, which is indeed an excellent start. It's dangerous to just triple that number and say it will make $36 million through the weekend, plus several million more on Monday, because that first Saturday for any movie is always a big indicator. Last week, for instance, Daybreakers would have made $18 million by that logic (it did $15 million). But mid-$30s seems like a good ceiling for the four-day holiday weekend. That, too, is better than projections, a sign that 2010 may repeat 2009's box office windfall. Avatar made just over $10 million, down just about 20% from last Friday, and in so doing, has passed Star Wars on the all-time domestic box office chart ($461 million). It will also come close to beating $1.5 billion globablly this frame, putting it about $300 million away from Titanic's previously unbeatable record. As we said on Thursday in our Fearless Forecast, look for $500 million to fall by the wayside in the US by Tuesday at the latest. But if it's behind Eli, how can it win the weekend? Simply put, the film's not done yet and it still draws in many more viewers on Saturday than Friday. That should be enough to put Avatar over $40 million for the four-day time frame. As for The Lovely Bones, Nikki Finke writes that teen girls have turned out in droves to see the film, based on a test screening late last year that found that demo fell in love with the movie. Paramount has since based a lot of its marketing on that crowd, and they have shown up, giving Peter Jackson's serious drama about $6 million on Friday. Still not great for a $100 million movie that once had Oscar aspirations, but certainly better than it looked before this weekend. Oh, and nobody's seeing The Spy Next Door, just in case you were wondering. Eli and Avatar should be a good dogfight to watch, and for both movies, Saturday is the key. Last weekend, Avatar made nearly 65% more on Saturday than Friday - in its fourth Saturday, mind you - and if it does that again, this will be a definite win for Cameron. If it plays even, however, as it did in all the other weekends, then Denzel has a slight chance to win this thing.