NBC, Conan Nearing Multi-Million-Dollar Settlement

How much is it worth to NBC to be rid of Conan O'Brien and the strangest bit of network scrutiny in years? According to The Los Angeles Times, a settlement between the soon-to-be-former Tonight Show host and the network firing him after seven months on the job could be worth $25 - $35 million (some reports have it as high as $40 million). In this scenario, it's not a lump sum payment but rather a long-term payout hinging on his future prospects. "The longer O'Brien is off the air," writes The Times, "the more money he could get." An announcement on the terms of the settlement could come as soon as today, which from NBC's standpoint, puts the headline a little further away from the primary news cycle. I still can't believe the network would give Conan another week of shows, though, especially with the way he's been blasting the network and his predecessor/successor Jay Leno on the air. As of now, Conan is supposed to stay on the air until Friday, January 22nd. Leno, at least most recently, wasn't expected back in that time slot until March 1st, after the Olympics. So what happens between January 25th and February 12th, when the Olympics start? Leno is still at 10pm until February 11th, the night before prime time coverage of the winter games begins. Reruns? That won't help Leno hit the ground running to get back the viewers Conan's Tonight Show lost. In a separate Times article, speculation has begun on where O'Brien might land if, as is believed, the settlement will allow him to work as soon as September. ABC is apparently not interested though Fox could be. The trouble there, as we outlined earlier in the week, is that Fox affiliates and owned-and-operated stations both fill the late night slots with syndicated programming. Some of them might have expiring contracts, but what do you about the others? Does Rupert Murdoch open the coffers to pay off those contracts (if that's even possible), build Conan a multi-million-dollar studio, pay him over $10 million a year to return to a time slot where he regularly struggled even with one of the most famous brand names in TV history? And, keep in mind, even his presence opposite Leno and Letterman divides the pie that much more in terms of possible revenue. Where's the upside for Fox in that equation? And, sadly, even though that's all that's left in terms of major broadcast outlets, it's still the good news for Conan:

"Though O'Brien's sensibilities may seem a perfect fit for HBO, the pay cable channel really isn't in the daily programming business. Having a daily show to hype would be a huge hassle even for the cash-rich HBO. Whether O'Brien would want a weekly or monthly show remains to be seen. Showtime and Starz would also be wary about getting into the daily-show business for the same reasons. And there is no way O'Brien could make the kind of money he's been making if he went to pay or commercial cable."

Comedy Central remains a wild card, but it's a similar situation: Where do you put him and is it worth the investment? The network's two strongest shows, hosted by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, draw roughly 1/4th the audience of the network competition. Hard to see the channel making a big pitch for a third late night comedy/talk show, but it might be the most logical option. Details of the settlement are likely to be hammered out this weekend, but it will be a while before the final word is written in this bizarre chapter.

Comments

[Will]

The only person who should be worried right now is Wanda Sykes.