Box Office - 'Avatar' Does It Again

It's a four-day weekend because of the Martin Luther King holiday, so these weekend estimates might change. What won't change is another win for Avatar. After dropping Friday to The Book of Eli, James Cameron reclaimed the weekend lead on Saturday with $17.3 million. Through Sunday, the film has earned $491 million and half a billion is possible on Monday, but I'm still holding to my Tuesday prediction there. This was, for the purposes of history, the first weekend that Avatar failed to make $20 million on any day, and certainly, $41 million is the lowest Friday - Sunday earnings the movie has seen, but it's still a record this deep into a run, and while it was behind The Dark Knight in terms of how fast it hit $450 million, it will blow the record for $500 million out of the water, accomplishing the feat in 32 or 33 days as opposed to 47 for Batman. Avatar should pace itself to topple Dark Knight's $535 million in another seven days, eight or nine if it really cools off. The Book of Eli did very well, too, and probably would have won the weekend if it were released seven days later. But a $31 million start for Denzel, again with Monday still to be counted, is awfully good. It should bode well for the film that it didn't lose audience on Saturday, because that indicates it's not a one-day wonder, so next weekend ought to be OK for this one, too. Based on its first four days (probably at least $35 million), Eli could become 2010's first $100 million movie, but we'll wait another week to make that claim officially. It was an impressive expansion for The Lovely Bones, which nobody expected to do very well because promotion for the film cooled off as bad reviews came pouring in toward the end of the year. But Paramount is probably very happy with $20 million this holiday weekend, which could go a long way toward keeping this from being seen as a big failure, even without many Oscar nominations headed its way. The Top Five (three-day totals):
1 - Avatar ($41.3 million)
2 - The Book of Eli ($31.6 million)
3 - The Lovely Bones ($17 million)
4 - Alvin and the Chipmunks ($11.5 million)
5 - Sherlock Holmes ($9.8 million)

Comments

[Honz Brix]

Now i'm thinking i might be ready to change my mind officially that Avatar will catch Titanic's record. It looks like it will beat the international record 1st. Then probably worldwide and then the domestic record will fall last. This could be the first movie ever to hit $2 billion worldwide...amazing!!

[Jeremy]

I'm confused...Boxofficemojo.com has 3-5 as The Lovely Bones, Chipmunks, & Sherlock w/ them earning 17, 11.5, & 9.8 respectively. I know you can't really speak on their behalf, but are their numbers just projections @ the moment?

[Get The Big Picture]

Jeremy -

I've made a change in the numbers, because those just happened to be there from the template I use every week for this column. I just forgot to change them before. As for the rankings, I was looking at the Sunday daily figures there, where Spy did beat Sherlock, so that was my gaffe. Thanks for the catch.