Fearless Forecast: 'Avatar' Takes Seventh Weekend

The most astonishing thing about Avatar taking the top spot at the international box office - a feat it will replicate in the US in just a few more days - is that it's still the number one movie everywhere. When Titanic died at $600 million domestic/$1.8 billion globally, it was almost a year old. The Dark Knight had to be re-released in January to cross $1 billion, and even though it raced to $300 million in less than two weeks, it took an additional four months-plus to make another $225 million. Avatar is entering its seventh consecutive weekend at number one, and it will probably get to eight, because nothing next weekend screams $20 million debut to me, at least not yet. But the phenomenal audience holds from weekend to weekend will keep James Cameron's film at the top again, its third close finish in seven weeks, at least relative to the other blow-out wins it has had. I suppose Mel Gibson's Edge of Darkness has a chance to pull the upset; both films will be looking at around $25 million or so from Friday to Sunday. But Gibson's drawing power is a real unknown right now, thanks to eight years off screen and the past half-decade has been full of negative publicity. So if I had to bet, I'd say Darkness would be the film to come up short of $25 million, and not the Irrestistible Force. If Warner Bros. had put the film into an additional 400 - 500 theaters, we would likely see a changing of the guard. That's really the only thing to watch for this weekend. Avatar almost certainly won't crack $600 million between now and Monday, but that will happen by next weekend. It will probably enter the weekend around $565 million, but another $35 million - even for Avatar - isn't in the cards at this point. And the only other major new release When in Rome - has little chance of upsetting anyone's apple cart. Should be around $10 million for that, maybe a tad less. The Top Five:
1 - Avatar ($27 million)
2 - Edge of Darkness ($21.5 million)
3 - Book of Eli ($9 million)
4 - When in Rome ($8 million)
5 - Legion ($7.5 million)