Which Films Fill the Void at Best Picture?

Is there an upshot to having ten Best Picture nominees? Well, the industry thinks it's great because of all the extra promotion, but what about the rest of us who just watch and enjoy the films? I think there is a possible silver lining, and we're about to find out who the beneficiaries are. The ten films that had reservations at the main table won't all be attending, and that means we need to find replacements. I've seen this topic at InContention and AwardsDaily, the two sites I follow for all the updated awards news, and I thought it was worthwhile enough to bring up here, since we've long been critical of the ten nominees idea and you've been thoughtful in your responses to it. I'll go a little further than those two sites, though, both of which tend to believe we're still looking at 90% of the same movies. The one exception: Nine won't be nominated for Best Picture. I don't disagree with that, not at all. But I'm not so sure all the other films are safe, either. So what films - which stand absolutely no chance of winning Best Picture, by the way - slide into the category? We'll go through the whole mess, so bear with me. First, here's what we know: If the rules were the same as last year, the five Best Picture candidates would be, in alphabetical order, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up in the Air, and either Precious or An Education. Up would not be nominated because of the Best Animated category, and the other potential nominees are second-tier. Maybe Invictus makes that cut, but it would be undeserving if it did. Of those six (or seven, counting Up, if you want), the real race is now likely down to Avatar and The Hurt Locker. We don't know that, but since the only category Up in the Air has better than even odds of winning outside Best Picture would be Best Adapted Screenplay, that really hurts its chances. Basterds is a dark horse, but I just can't see the Academy voting for something so off-the-wall, as good as it is. You can argue that, but it's still the same four movies with an also-ran thrown in. The bottom five would take the alternate from An Education and Precious, Up...and what? I still see Invictus on the big board, but it has been underwhelming from every crucial standpoint. The performances aren't great, the film itself isn't terribly inspiring, and neither is its box office. I would say that one's fresh meat. Nine is out. So that gives us three potential slots to fill. The Producers Guild announced its Best Picture candidates this morning, which included our top seven listed above, Invictus, plus - get this - Star Trek and District 9. I might have expected one of those, probably District 9, but both? And with Avatar? Putting aside for a moment that the PGA picking three sci-fi movies probably augurs well for Avatar at the Academy Awards, are those two films solidly in the running? Yes. Along with The Messenger and the Coens' A Serious Man, I think the final two (or three) slots will come down to these four films. I don't think Crazy Heart is fantastic beyond Bridges' performance - and he's clearly out in front in that category - and A Single Man has been hit or miss; people love it or loathe it, I've found. So we could be looking at a list of Best Picture nominees that resembles this: Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air Again, I'm still not sold on Invictus. Outside of the beloved Mr. Eastwood, I just don't see where the support comes from. The PGA nomination is a strong indicator of how much stock Hollywood puts in Dirty Harry, but I'm not positive it's secure. If it is, good for Clint, I guess (although, honestly, does he really need an obligatory Best Picture nomination these days?), but if it's not, we're right back in the same boat, and something else winds up with a nomination.

Comments

[Lance St. Laurent]

Here's what I'm thinking

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Up
Precious
An Education
A Serious Man
The Messenger
District 9

As lame as Invictus was, it still is very likely to overtake District 9 for the #10 spot, but that's what I got now.

[anybody]

If they were smart (and they are not) they would take the top 7 you mentioned and add the next best, or best if you ask me, animated feature Fantastic Mr Fox and the best two foreign films. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see D9 in there though as well but there is more to the best picture than just american films or even just fiction films Perhaps they could even slide a doc or two in there? (it might be smart to start calling the best picture category, best feature/fiction film or whatever to exclude docs to their own category which they usually are anyways).

1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Avatar
3. Hurt Locker
4. Up in the Air
5. UP
6. Fantastic Mr. Fox
7. Precious
8. An Education
9. District 9 (or A Prophet)
10. A Serious Man (or The White Ribbon)

At 9 and 10 either both foreigns or neither...

[Nelson]

Watch out for THE MESSENGER

[SEAN]

Yes anybody...!!

Completely agree w/ The White Ribbon & A Prophet being up there, that would be an ideal circumstance which I doubt will happen unfortunatley...

I really do think Invictus will be up there, just for the fact that everyone loves him & he has a lot of respect, even thought the film may be underserving...
-- I recently have been believing, especially since globe nods , like for Downey & Julia Roberts, its really about who you know & your resume/reputation, rather than based on the given moment, its connections & those who are well liked & known...

I really dont think Star Trek should get a nod...It was really good for Trekkies & non Trekkies alike BUT I feel like it still shouldn't ...

I do think your list is pretty spot on Colin, however, to what it will be like...

I still rather have The White Ribbon in there for Star Trek, at the least

[Brandon]

As crazy as this sounds why can't Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince get into the nominees? The movie was pretty good and had a good box office, definitely think its more deserving of getting a nod at least over invictus.

[Get The Big Picture]

Because it won't get nominated until the last film.

[Just me]

I would take Coraline more seriously...it should be in whichever list of awards that exists along with Selick nomination.The most ambitious movie ever made in stop motion...

[anybody]

Don't get me wrong, I also was a big Coraline fan (also a huge Neil Gaiman fan) and the visuals were borderline spectacular BUT the script, especially the dialogue left something to be desired (I wish Selick had hired Gaiman to adapt his own work) AND Fantastic Mr. Fox for me was an even better stop-motion full filmmaking exercise (not as flashy sure but equally visually stunning) with an amazing script to boot.