Box Office - 'Avatar' Takes Friday with $12.6 Million

A good showing by newcomer Daybreakers is not enough to make a significant dent in Avatar's box office armor, but the James Cameron film is finally showing signs of coming back to Earth four weeks into its record-setting run. Still number one on Friday, Avatar was down 50% from last Friday, and its $12.6 million estimate might give the film another $40 million weekend. That would take it to $420 million or so, pacing it only behind The Dark Knight as the second-fastest movie to $400 million. Daybreakers, the new futuristic vampire movie, took in $5.8 million, which should translate to a $15 million weekend. That number could go up a couple million if Friday word of mouth matches the fairly strong reviews for the film, pushing more Saturday business. It's the first of several movies right in a row that are aiming for the young male audience, along with Book of Eli and Legion in the next two weeks. Those movies are the likely candidates to chip away at repeat business for Avatar, collectively and individually. But I don't think any of them have any major lasting impact at the box office. If Daybreakers doesn't hold its audience on Saturday, look for Sherlock Holmes to place in the runner-up slot this weekend. Despite not having direct competition, Alvin and the Chipmunks is a little behind Sherlock after Friday, so those three films should be piled up in the mid-teens at the end of the weekend. Leap Year and Youth in Revolt are not performing to expectations, as low as they were. Nither film is likely to break $9 million this weekend. That's a bigger deal to Amy Adams than Michael Cera, but that's what happens to a lot of early January romcoms. Two other films to watch in the lower depths of the top ten are The Blind Side (still) and Up in the Air. Blind Side will end the weekend at about $220 million, by far the best result ever for a name-above-the-title female star. It's obviously slowing down, but it should do $5 - $7 million this weekend, maybe another $10 million in the following seven days, and that means if Sandra Bullock gets an Oscar nomination, this could eventually cross $250 million in the US alone. Up in the Air, despite being overshadowed in the awards race as we head down the stretch, is the quietest movie to hit $50 million in a while. In fewer than 2,500 theaters, the George Clooney flick is probably headed toward $75 pre-Oscars. Those nominations are due in three weeks, so there should be a small push for this one as well. Not a huge box office figure, but on a $25 million budget and without a ton of advertising, it's a big victory.

Comments

[Jeremy]

"My friend James Cameron and I made three films together - True Lies, The Terminator and Terminator 2. Of course, that was during his early, low-budget, art-house period." -Arnold

[Aron]

Jeremy, that's an AWESOME quote.

[Vince]

OK showing by "Daybreakers", the other openers bombed but they really weren't supposed to break out anyway, especially "Leap Year". Man, what were they thinking?

If "Avatar" does hit $40 million this weekend and FINALLY starts to lose steam, then I could see "Book of Eli" winning next weekend. "Avatar" would need to drop 25% or less next weekend to get the top spot, which is not impossible, but "Book of Eli" has the opportunity to surprise. Denzel's always good for a solid opening in the mid-twenties, and the action/comic book type focus of this movie has got some fanboys excited as well. It'll definitely be close.

[Get The Big Picture]

Maybe. I don't know what the tracking is for Eli, but probably mid-20s, as you say. It'll be close if Avatar dips 40% or so. The 50% this weekend is just a reaction to the boost in holiday attendance.

[Jeremy]

*bow* thank you. I just happened to be browsing Arnold quotes when this update was posted. Right place, right time.