Box Office - Happy 'Valentine's Day'

Even before we factor in Monday's box office numbers - which should still be quite good for a movie engineered specifically for this four-day period - Valentine's Day has had a major impact on the box office. There's a slim chance the rom-com could hit $65 million between Friday and Monday, based on the latest estimates that put the film well ahead of the pack at $52 million through Sunday. Looking at the daily estimates, you might be surprised to learn that Valentine's Day is peaking on Sunday. Most movies don't do that, especially films that start as strong as this one did, plus, movies aren't - shall we say - the most romantic option for Valentine's Day. I thought this would make most of its money leading into Sunday with some carryover on Monday for people who made other other plans today. We'll keep an eye on that daily total when the actual numbers roll in. It will be a record weekend, too, thanks to the strong openings by Percy Jackson and the Olympians and The Wolfman, which have been neck-and-neck ever since their opening days. Right now, Percy has about a half-million-dollar lead in the estimates, and both should finish the four-day weekend on the high end between $35 and $40 million. That is particularly encouraging news for Universal, because The Wolfman is not only damaged goods, it's also a strange weekend to unfurl an R-rated period horror movie with a bad reputation. So far so good, though, although the movie had a budget that probably only grew considerably in the last six months, with new effects being added and new editors being hired. Therefore, it may still have trouble becoming a big success, but it certainly isn't a bomb, which a lot of people - including me - thought it would be. Avatar looks like it will capture fourth place, with a possible $28 - $30 million four-day frame. How about $660 million for this one and it's still in the top five? Unbelievable. Of course, Avatar still has two more weeks before it loses the IMAX screens to Alice in Wonderland, so it should be over $700 million by then in the US alone, which would give the film over $2.3 billion worldwide. The Top Five (three-day estimates):
1 - Valentine's Day ($52.4 million)
2 - Percy Jackson ($31.1 million)
3 - The Wolfman ($30.6 million)
4 - Avatar ($22 million)
5 - Dear John ($15.7 million)

Comments

[question]

Colin, how do you think Valentine's Day will fare after this weekend? Seems like it could be pretty front-loaded considering the emphasis on Valentine's Day...plus the big big weekend numbers...do you think it does more than say $140MM total? Thanks

[Get The Big Picture]

Uh...I think it will probably do around $150 - $160 million. There's just nothing close to it being released for a month, plus it should be over $100 million by the end of next weekend. So can it do $50 million in three - four weeks with nothing else in its category? Probably.

[question]

yeah, sounds right...thanks