Tuesday
Feb022010
Tuesday, February 2, 2010 at 5:53AM The 82nd Academy Award Nominations
On March 7th, the Academy Awards will be handed out, and if you've been following the bouncing ball for a few weeks, there's not much left unknown among the most prestigious categories. 
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up
Up in the Air Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’nique, Precious
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami
The Milk of Sorrow
The Secret in Their Eyes
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon Best Documentary
The Cove
Burma VJ
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home Certainly, there were a few upsets in this year's nomination pool. On a personal note, I ran the Best Picture category from my predictions this weekend. The Blind Side and District 9 slid into the final slots and Invictus got kicked to the curb, so all of that played out the way I presumed. However, if you look at the supporting acting categories, Matt Damon made the cut for Invictus and Nine was represented by Penélope Cruz. Meanwhile, Maggie Gyllenhaal rode Jeff Bridges' coattails to a nomination for Crazy Heart. In the animated category, The Secret of Kells replaced Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, which I think almost everyone figured was safe. I was glad to see In the Loop get rewarded for its script (but at the expense of Fantastic Mr. Fox?), although if voters really did see that political satire, how in the world did Peter Capaldi not get a Supporting Actor nod? Oscars.org has the entire rundown of this year's awards; let the guesswork begin. Both Avatar and The Hurt Locker received nine nominations total, which bookends that whole Bigelow v. Cameron battle rather symmetrically. They're actually head-to-head in seven of those nine categories, everything but Visual Effects and Art Direction if you're Team Pandora or Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay if you're Team Bomb Disposal Unit. If I'm guessing now, I'd give Hurt Locker the edge in editing and cinematography, but the sound categories should be and probably will be Mr. Cameron's. Operating under that same assumption, Hurt Locker would win four and Avatar would take four or five. I have no true gauge on Original Score, but again, for the sake of overall symmetry, let's say Avatar loses there and we get four for each film. If you're interested in our predictions percentage, we projected 81% of the nominations correctly this year, which is probably about average.
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up
Up in the Air Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’nique, Precious
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami
The Milk of Sorrow
The Secret in Their Eyes
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon Best Documentary
The Cove
Burma VJ
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home Certainly, there were a few upsets in this year's nomination pool. On a personal note, I ran the Best Picture category from my predictions this weekend. The Blind Side and District 9 slid into the final slots and Invictus got kicked to the curb, so all of that played out the way I presumed. However, if you look at the supporting acting categories, Matt Damon made the cut for Invictus and Nine was represented by Penélope Cruz. Meanwhile, Maggie Gyllenhaal rode Jeff Bridges' coattails to a nomination for Crazy Heart. In the animated category, The Secret of Kells replaced Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, which I think almost everyone figured was safe. I was glad to see In the Loop get rewarded for its script (but at the expense of Fantastic Mr. Fox?), although if voters really did see that political satire, how in the world did Peter Capaldi not get a Supporting Actor nod? Oscars.org has the entire rundown of this year's awards; let the guesswork begin. Both Avatar and The Hurt Locker received nine nominations total, which bookends that whole Bigelow v. Cameron battle rather symmetrically. They're actually head-to-head in seven of those nine categories, everything but Visual Effects and Art Direction if you're Team Pandora or Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay if you're Team Bomb Disposal Unit. If I'm guessing now, I'd give Hurt Locker the edge in editing and cinematography, but the sound categories should be and probably will be Mr. Cameron's. Operating under that same assumption, Hurt Locker would win four and Avatar would take four or five. I have no true gauge on Original Score, but again, for the sake of overall symmetry, let's say Avatar loses there and we get four for each film. If you're interested in our predictions percentage, we projected 81% of the nominations correctly this year, which is probably about average.
Reader Comments (19)
500 days of summer was a brilliant film, and not even a screenplay nod?
You are the man Colin, great job on your predictions!
Up is nominated for best picture AND best animated feature. Should the other animated features even show UP?
What a joke.
Oh, and I'm having my "Team Bomb Disposal Unit" shirt made as we speak.
I guess this prompts the question: What the hell is The Secret of Kells?
I am actually happy to see the 8 nominations for Inglourious Basterds. I am a huge Tarantino fan and I know how devisive he can be. I'ts nice to see recognition for his great accomplishment last year.
I actually think a lot of the "technical" categories will be wide open. Some good and worty choices for editing, sound etc. The notable exception being of course Avatar for special effects, probably the safest Oscar prediction in years. I think we will know early on, if Avatar sweeps all the technical awards then we could be looking at a Return of the King type clean sweep.
I am also pleased to not see any writing nomination for Avatar, by far the weakest part of the movie. It's ironic that with all this hype about expanding the category, it is still basically a two-horse race. Perhaps they should have Mablean Ephriam present the Best Director Oscar?
At least the other 8 films have something to put on their Blu-Ray cover.
I think it's notable that Avatar didn't get a screenplay nomination. And it's notable for this reason: The last time a Best Picture winner wasn't nominated for the screenplay: Titanic. Of course, I don't think Avatar will win Best Picture, but get used to hearing that little bit of trivia presented as logic.
The one thing I wonder about is whether or not Bullock will really win an Academy Award. It's not the strongest competition, but pound-for-pound, she is the weakest of the nominees I've seen. Everyone else is better, assuming Helen Mirren was awake while she acted in The Last Station, since that's the only one I haven't had a chance to watch.
They don't play a wild card very often in the lead acting categories, but I think Adrien Brody and Marion Cotillard would qualify. In a relatively even year, that can happen, and I don't know if Bullock can really ride the wave for another month. Looks that way right now, but Streep has two, Bullock would have one. Does that seem equitable?
I'm actually pulling for Bullock so she can join Cuba Gooding Jr. and Mira Sorvino on the list of "They've won Oscars and Peter O'toole hasn't?"