Fearless Forecast - 'Shutter' Tops Cops, Zombies

So far, there are very few positive notices for Cop Out. Rotten Tomatoes isn't everything, but it's a fairly reliable gauge, and as of this writing, Cop Out sits closer to a 10% approval rating than even a 30% approval rating. You'd want something a little bit higher. Still, the buddy cop movie has a chance to take the top spot at the box office, because director Kevin Smith - who isn't mentioned in the marketing at all - has over 3,100 theaters to play with. That's about the only chance it has, though - attrition. It may not be enough to dethrone Shutter Island, which got generally strong reviews, even better reactions from last weekend's audience, and hit $40 million. There is a third competitor that doesn't have a strong chance at number one, but it'll turn a profit pretty quickly, and when you're The Crazies, that's the name of the game. It's in enough theaters this weekend to make a fair amount of cash - mid-teens, probably - and it didn't cost much more than that. Give it two to three weeks, and it's in the black. But let's talk about the reviews again: Very good, as a matter of fact, particularly for a horror remake. That could help it a little bit, but with only 2,400 theaters it's not likely to play spoiler. So, I say Shutter Island again, because it shouldn't drop the ball in weekend two, and Cop Out would need a great weekend to catch it. That looks unlikely. If Shutter Island does what we think it will, then Scorsese will be around $75 million after two weeks, so even though Paramount took some criticism for moving this from October to February, it looks like it might turn out pretty well. No Oscar consideration, really (barring some strange set of circumstances in which this is remembered ten months from now), but it wasn't going to go out and win anything, anyway. One other not for this weekend: Avatar will cross $700 million domestic, and $2.5 billion global. By the time it's through, it will make more money outside the US than Titanic ever made including the American market. That, to me, is the most staggering stat of all. Think about it: Not counting the top movie market in the world, where Avatar will probably hit $725 - $740 million, it will still outperform the former top-grossing movie ever. The Top Five:
1 - Shutter Island ($23 million)
2 - Cop Out ($19.5 million)
3 - The Crazies ($14 million)
4 - Avatar ($11.5 million)
5 - Valentine's Day ($8 million)

Comments

[Vince]

This'll probably be Kevin Smith's biggest opening, though that's not saying much at all. At least it's getting marketed, unlike that debacle that happened when Zack and Miri opened. Man, the reviews on the movie are brutal though. I'm a huge Kevin Smith fan/apologist, but I think I'm gonna skip this one for now.

The Crazies could at least do The Last House on the Left numbers, possibly even more, considering the solid reviews and the whole "post-apocalyptic/human crisis" genre doing fairly well this year with Legion and Book of Eli opening well.