Box Office - 'Shutter Island' On Target for a Repeat

No surprises of any kind at the box office on Friday, and I'm thankful for that, because I don't look like an idiot for the first time in a few weeks. Between the steamroller that was (and is) Avatar and some surprising debuts three weeks in a row from Dear John, Valentine's Day, and Shutter Island, there's finally some stability. Shutter Island appears to be headed for a repeat performance at the top spot, and at almost exactly what we estimated on Thursday. After a $6.7 million Friday, the Scorsese film looks like a low-20s entry this weekend, which would put Shutter at right around $80 million after two weeks. Certainly, $100 million will follow in pretty short order - maybe another 10 days after this weekend - and then the film will set its sights on $132 million, the Scorsese record (The Departed). Cop Out opened just below Shutter, but if the word of mouth is as bad as it should be, the cop comedy has already peaked. So it looks like $20 million will be the ceiling here. That's probably not enough to overtake Shutter Island, but it will be Kevin Smith's top debut, for what that's worth. Since he studio doesn't even recognize he directed it in the advertising, though, that may not be anything for Smith to hang his hat on. There's a chance that The Crazies could wind up in second place. Only about half-a-million bucks separates first and third right now, but it would be easier for The Crazies to move ahead of a bad comedy just a few thousand up than it would be Cop Out to shake something loose from Shutter Island. The theater counts still strongly favor Cop Out, but it may not win on a per-screen basis. Still, a $5.7 million Friday is a strong start for a genre picture in under 2,500 theaters. By the end of this weekend, Avatar will cross $700 million at the domestic box office. What's the limit? I still think $740 - $750 million looks about right. Astronomical, isn't it?