Guild Awards Point the Way to Oscar Wins

We're a week away from the Academy Awards, and I just saw a promo on ABC, based around the show being live, which seems like an odd way to look at it. But it goes with "Live is...adventure" and "Live is...connection" and other statements that make no sense, concluding with something about live being unpredictable or words to that effect. I suppose that's true, but when it comes to this year's Academy Awards, they're fairly predictable. Outside of Best Picture, which is voted on by the general Academy membership, each other award is determined by Oscar voters in specific categories - actors vote on the acting awards, costume designers for that award, directors for directors. And those awards have already been handed out, with the exception of the visual effects awards, and we know where that's headed. So if you're one of those people who does the Oscar pool, go with these nominees, because they've already won the same award from the professional guilds. There might be some differences along the way, though; Inglourious Basterds should win Best Original Screenplay but it wasn't eligible for the Writers Guild award, so that went to The Hurt Locker. Similar issues may crop up, but the overwhelming majority of these trophies seem set in stone. Producers Guild Best Picture
The Hurt Locker Directors Guild
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker Screen Actors Guild
Jeff Bridges
Sandra Bullock
Christoph Waltz
Mo'Nique Writers Guild
The Hurt Locker (Original Screenplay)
Up in the Air (Adapted Screenplay) Annie Awards (Animated Feature)
Up American Society of Cinematographers
The White Ribbon American Cinema Editors
The Hurt Locker Art Directors Guild
The Hurt Locker (Contemporary Film)
Sherlock Holmes (Period Film)
Avatar (Fantasy Film) Costume Designers Guild
Crazy Heart (Contemporary Film)
The Young Victoria (Period Film)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Fantasy Film) Cinema Audio Society (Sound Mixing)
The Hurt Locker Again, Avatar will absolutely win those visual effects awards later tonight, but beyond that and possibly art direction, the odds are it will go home empty-handed. Why would the editors vote for Hurt Locker and change their minds when asked the very same question for the Oscars? That's not likely to happen.However, there is one caveat: Just because you're in a guild doesn't mean you get an Oscar vote, so there's a chance that just the majority of Avatar-minded cinematographers have received Oscar ballots but White Ribbon and Hurt Locker fans are in the minority. Still, the guilds they're usually very reliable indicators of the Academy Awards, so keep all these categories in mind next Sunday.

Comments

[anybody]

These categories are usually fairly easy to predict (or at least have a 50-50 shot at)... any thoughts on the small ones to help with my pools? Doc? LiveShort? AniShort? Etc?

[Get The Big Picture]

I didn't get the shorts this year, and normally I do. So I'm no help there. Of course, I've never guessed those right, anyway. Documentary looks like The Cove; it's been the lead dog during awards season.