Fearless Forecast: From Pandora With Love

The only thing left to watch for in terms of Avatar's assault on box office records is what the final number will be. As of this writing, it's closing in on $2.1 billion, and in the US alone, it just beat Titanic. So there are no more feats to accomplish other than the number we'll quote when something threatens it, if that ever happens. For the purposes of history, it would be great if Avatar makes another $300 million and change around the world so that, even without most of the record-breaking US performance, it would still have outgrossed Titanic. Can you imagine a film making $600 million more than Titanic, a full 33% more than the all-time number? By Monday, that global figure will be closer to $2.2 billion, thanks in no small measure to the film's eighth consecutive win at the domestic box office. Most of these haven't even been close, by the way. And again, it will outperform its nearest competitor by almost 150%. What that nearest competitor will be is the only thing left to determine. It might be From Paris with Love, an action flick from the director of Taken. I don't believe John Travolta is a guy who can open a movie anymore, though, and Lionsgate has some trouble in that regard, too. The fact that it's in less than 3,000 theaters and is an action movie opening on Super Bowl weekend may limit its pull. The other candidate is Dear John, a Nicholas Sparks movie about people who fall in love too quickly and write letters to each other. Isn't that every Nicholas Sparks movie? But the audience for that film knows what it's getting and it will attract older women and younger women alike, thanks to the name recognition of Sparks for women over 30 or 35 and the shirtless Channing Tatum factor for women under 30. It won't be a box office beast, either, but I am predicting it will do slightly better than an action movie with weak reviews and a star with no true drawing power that is also playing in Avatar's sandbox a little bit...on Super Bowl weekend. But I could be wrong. This will probably be the last number one for Avatar, however. Three big movies open next week, all of which have low-20s potential at the box office, and it will probably time out that Avatar just loses enough of its audience to be overtaken. I did say "probably," though. None of next week's movies are a guaranteed $40 million opener. Of course, by next Friday, when the film may finally lose its grip, it will have made about $640 million in the US alone. The Top Five:
1 - Avatar ($28 million)
2 - Dear John ($16 million)
3 - From Paris With Love ($13 million)
4 - Edge of Darkness ($10 million)
5 - When in Rome ($7 million)

Comments

[Honz Brix]

Hey Colin looking at Titanics numbers for Valentines weekend it actually gained 43% from the previous weekend. $23 million to almost $33 million. Obviously probably because of it being a love story. Do you think anyway Avatar repeats this because of the love story? Or not, because it doesn't seem to be so much about the love story as it is about the nature and anti war messages in the movie? Atleast thats what i felt it was more about

[Nelson]

Avatar could still do some serious work since it just got nominated for best picture - keep that in mind.

[Get The Big Picture]

Yeah, but look what opened against Titanic: The Wedding Singer was the hit of that group. Not that Wolfman will be a hit, but between it, Percy Jackson, and especially Valentine's Day, that's a bunch for Avatar to absorb, especially since it's already made so much money. The big story with Titanic is that it made $250 million after Valentine's Day. I still think it'll do $20 million next weekend, easily, but now those numbers are easier to predict than they were a month ago.

The other thing to contend with this frame is the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is the biggest draw in the NFL, so that will necessarily cut into the pie for everyone at the box office. Try this on for size: 31% of all male viewers between 18 and 49 watched the AFC championship game. These Super Bowl numbers could be the best ever. So, I think Avatar may equal this weekend's numbers next week, in part because Sunday will take a hit across the board. Plus, it's a four-day weekend at the box office next week, thanks to President's Day.

The Oscars wouldn't really spike it ten days later, Nelson, particularly in an instance where so many people have already seen the film. I'm predicting it slightly higher this weekend than some other projections, because there will be more interest this weekend, and if it wins the Academy Award, it might see another rise then, but I don't think it will have a consistent resurgence, no. What may happen is what I just mentioned about the combination of the four-day weekend and this weekend basically operating at 75% of its usual strength. So, yes, Avatar may look better next weekend than this weekend, but there are a number of factors.

[Krystal]

Box Office Mojo estimates that domestically, Avatar has currently sold 61 million tickets versus an estimated 128 million total for Titanic. Their box office numbers are the same though at $600M because of ticket price inflation & the 3D premium. When I look at admissions, to me it seems like Titanic had the more fantastic box office run since I don't see how Avatar can even get close to selling 128 million tickets. Of course I know things are different now with more competition from other movies, DVDs, videogames & shorter theatrical runs, but still, Titanic has sold more than double the number of tickets that Avatar has sold!

[Get The Big Picture]

Titanic through over 40 weekends to 7 (going on 8) for Avatar, yes. But Titanic didn't sell 128 million tickets between mid-December and early February. It made about 45% its money after this weekend in 1998, so...roughly the same amount of tickets, and against much, much, much weaker competition in theaters.

There's no denying what either film did in its time, though. After all, nothing else in those eras has even come close. Dark Knight did $1 billion in six months worldwide; it took Avatar less than two months to double it.

[Honz Brix]

Actually i read Avatars ticket sales are 76 million Krystal. I know still way behind but, i must disagree with you, i think Avatars run is more impressive. Any way you look at it we are seeing something that probably won't happen again for atleast another decade, maybe even 30 years. I think its safe to say nobody expected this thats for sure

[Krystal]

Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo factored in 3D/IMAX surcharges when calculating number of tickets sold, which is why his estimated attendance figure is much lower.

Both runs are incredible but Avatar will be losing 3D theatres in less than 2 months when Alice in Wonderland opens, & then probably not very many people will wanna see it in 2D. (I still want to cuz I want to compare 2D to IMAX 3D to see if it makes a big difference, plus I missed the first 10 mins. so still need to see the opening!)