Fearless Forecast - A Return Visit to 'Wonderland'

There will be a logjam at the box office this week, but not at the top. Instead, the race is probably for third place. Alice in Wonderland will cruise to an easy win, and it might even go three weekends as king of the mountain. Even if the film gives up 50% of its audience this weekend, that's still $58 million, and the daily reports have been pretty robust, so that could be the number to work with a week from now, when the race gets more interesting. This weekend, it's a runaway. Green Zone isn't likely to do $50 million - but who thought Alice would bring in over $115 million? - so even if it's a surprise on the level of Shutter Island, it will be safely in Alice's rear-view mirror. The reviews are not that kind to Green Zone and I don't think Universal has done a great job marketing it as a must-see movie. It will still do OK, but anything north of $25 million would be a dream come true for the studio. I have my doubts it's playing in that arena, though, and $22 million might be the best-case scenario. I've seen as estimate as low as $18 million, but I'll give Matt Damon a bit more credibility with the audience, especially with the loose purse strings moviegoers are exercising these days. As I said, the real race is for the bronze. Three movies will be bucking for a mid-teens finish, with Remember Me likely to come out slightly ahead of She's Out of My League, which itself should outstrip Our Family Wedding by a couple million bucks. But unless Team Edward really shows up, the new Robert Pattinson movie ought to only have a modest life span. The Top Five:
1 - Alice in Wonderland ($54 million)
2 - Green Zone ($20.5 million)
3 - Remember Me ($16 million)
4 - She's Out of My League ($11 million)
5 - Our Family Wedding ($9 million)

Comments

[Vince]

My numbers are just about in line with yours. I don't see Remember Me breaking out because it's still playing at sub-2000 theaters, but that could happen. Maybe.

I'm actually calling for Green Zone to hit $19 million tops. My reasoning is thematically similar movies like The Kingdom and Body of Lies both failed at the box office. The latter had just as much star power as, if not more than Green Zone does (ok, maybe Matt Damon's a bit of a bigger draw than Leonardo is, but still). If this movie was getting better reviews, I could've seen it hitting $25 million easily, but it's not so it won't.

[Get The Big Picture]

Remember Me could get the Dear John bump, but the theater counts will still keep it mostly in line.