Fox Pressuring Affiliates To Make Room for Conan

Over the past two months or so, we've followed the action in late night TV pretty carefully. Leno and Conan played musical chairs at NBC, but since Jay was probably holding the fiddle, it's no surprise he came out a winner there. He's beating Letterman again, but not by the million-plus that used to be the standard. And the lead probably won't get any wider. Especially with this news. Fox has always been the de facto choice to wind up with Conan, because it has no late night presence, but is pretty strong everywhere else. The question has always been how Rupert Murdoch would pull it off. Fox doesn't have 10pm programming, meaning Conan would either go there or follow the local news at 10:30 or interrupt a coveted block of local revenue generated by syndicated shows at 11:00 or 11:30. No matter what, local stations stand to lose some money because they don't get most of the ad money produced by a network show. TMZ reports that Team Rupert is "putting pressure" on its stations to clear the way for Conan, meaning eating contracts for syndicated shows that give them a healthy chunk of revenue. There's no word if Fox will chip in to pay off those distributors, but it's probably not something the affiliates want to tackle alone. Here's the other thing: Conan would be going on at 11pm in this scenario. Fox has clearly done more research on this than I have, but that doesn't sound like a winning strategy to me. With the rare exception of a huge guest who never does talk show appearances, like the president or something, ratings for late night shows peak in the first 15 minutes. The monologue and the opening comedy segments are squeezed in there for a reason. Even if Conan carries his numbers for the first half-hour, he's still going up against the local news on the other networks, and that probably won't be a consistent win for Fox. It's kind of untested in recent history, but generally, the late local news is appointment viewing and people watch one newscast all the time. Tough to see a show that didn't do huge business at 11:30 suddenly gaining ground at 11pm. And by the time Letterman and Leno start, Conan's already operating at a disadvantage if nobody's watched his first 30 minutes. The other factor is that, unlike Dave and Jay, Conan will follow not just the news but an Office or whatever half-hour comedy repeat follows the 11pm traffic accidents, weather, and sports. That, too, is a disadvantage. Just look back at the Tonight Show fiasco; part of the problem for Conan was he could never grow a bigger audience because his lead-ins were so bad. Now Fox wants people to watch the news, watch a repeat, and then watch Conan. That's a tough sell. Fox reportedly is still negotiating with O'Brien but would like to make the announcement soon. But will it work for him where the most coveted chair in late night didn't?

Comments

[Asana]

"But will it work for him where the most coveted chair in late night didn't?"

The "coveted chair" wasn't the problem, NBC's strategy was. Whether this supposed Fox deal pans out remains to be seen but at least it comes without the high level of incompetence displayed by the peacock.

[Get The Big Picture]

NBC's strategy was part of it, but now Conan's in a similar situation to the one he turned down to remain host of Tonight at midnight. He's still not 11:30, still not head-to-head in late night, and it's going to be even tougher to win. There's more competition and he has less of a lead-in now than Leno and NBC gave him at 11:30.

[adam]

Fox's 10pm news is an hour long. Conan would be following that, not a repeat. Syndicated shows on Fox currently start at 11pm...

[Amy Cameron]

I love Conan. He is way better than Jay Leno, I don't even think they should be on the same basket.
Amy Cameron
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