Box Office - The 'Dragon' Breathes Fire

Alice in Wonderland was very strong for just about 14 days. This week, its numbers have dropped off considerably, meaning any showdown with How to Train Your Dragon won't be worth watching. Whereas Alice averaged about $6 million a day last Monday and Tuesday, she could only register about $2.7 million this week. So it's slightly more than a 50% drop, and that should be the tune this weekend, as well. There's plenty of competition for Alice because its appeal is so broad. Clearly, the DreamWorks cartoon has the best chance to unseat it, since it's taking some of those 3-D screens and DreamWoork 'toons always start hot. Add the tacked-on 25 - 30% for 3-D tickets and Dragon ought to do very well, indeed. In fact, because the 3-D in this film is actually worth mentioning - which hasn't been true of most animated films - the percentage of 3-D ticket sales might actually be higher than normal. Monsters vs. Aliens debuted with nearly $60 million. I think that's significantly more than we'll see with Dragon, which is getting a smaller pool of theaters to start with. But given the way the 3-D trend has effectively been a box office steroid for good hitters, I think a mid-forties return isn't out of the question. MGM doesn't have much to shout about these days, but they're promoting the bejesus out of Hot Tub Time Machine. Stupid concept, yes, at least on paper. But as Dave Letterman said the other night, "I know genius when I see it, and the name Hot Tub Time Machine is genius." That it is. John Cusack said on Craig Ferguson that the idea is so stupid it's actually smart, or words to that effect. Male audiences don't have much else to watch right now, so if they're looking for a laugh, MGM could very well have a hit for the first time in a while. In fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Time Machine, which is also getting favorable reviews, will actually leapfrog Alice for second place this weekend. Take that, Tim Burton. The Top Five:
1 - How to Train Your Dragon ($42.5 million)
2 - Hot Tub Time Machine ($21 million)
3 - Alice in Wonderland ($18 million)
4 - Diary of a Wimpy Kid ($10 million)
5 - The Bounty Hunter ($8 million)

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There are Wizards in the forest. There are Druids in the trees...