Fearless Forecast - A Wonderful Weekend for 'Alice'

A couple films will be worth tracking this weekend at the box office. The first, obviously, is Alice in Wonderland. It may do $70 million on a combination of standard and 3-D screens (over 3,400 in all). I'll go a little lower for an official projection, but I can't see it making less than $62 million or more than $75 - $77 million. Why the wide range? The 3-D theaters. The ticket prices are higher, but because it's still such a new thing for a lot of moviegoers, it's hard to say how much of the audience will come from that source. Avatar is the other movie to watch, because it's finally losing its 3-D IMAX screens. The drop should be significant, as if that actually matters now; James Cameron's film will be close to $725 million after this weekend. Don't expect an Oscar bump, either. The smaller theater count and the likelihood that Avatar won't win a single major award should mute any talk of that. Otherwise, there isn't much to report. Brooklyn's Finest is the sacrificial lamb to Alice, and Shutter Island will remain fairly strong, but it has done most of its damage already. Scorsese's latest will come close to $100 million after this weekend, and in another week it will be his second biggest film, behind only The Departed. It might catch that movie, but would need a fantastic second month to do it. It still looks like a $125 million flick, with at least another $75 million overseas by the time it's through. Last week's new releases will fade away pretty quickly: Cop Out and The Crazies will fall to sub-$10 million levels, but they're both still marginally profitable, The Crazies more so. But as the season heats up over the next three or four weeks, those will be quickly forgotten by most audiences. The Top Five:
1 - Alice in Wonderland ($68.5 million)
2 - Shutter Island ($13 million)
3 - Brooklyn's Finest ($9 million)
4 - Cop Out ($8.5 million)
5 - Avatar ($7.75 million)

Comments

[Vince]

I'm still betting that Alice will take the Spring opening weekend record from Fast & Furious . Charlie and the Chocolate Factory , even while dealing with a more crowded marketplace and having a prime Summer release date, sold about $65 million in ticket sales its opening weekend. Alice is based on a seminal, widely known novel, it's the first movie event for families this year, it lacks real competition ( Percy Jackson will maybe bring in $6 million this weekend if its lucky) and the 3D prices will only help the total.

I also have a theory that the Twilight /Hot Topic crowd will come out in droves for this film.

So I would say $71. million would be my guess.

[Get The Big Picture]

You've had my number on these for the past few weeks, Vince, so you're probably right. But better to bid lower, like The Price is Right.

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