The Big Picture's Academy Awards Predictions

This year's Academy Awards should be boring if you've paid a fair amount of attention to the other awards that have been handed out in the past couple of months. Of the eight "major" categories - four acting, two screenplay, director, and picture - five are almost certainly sewn up, there's a strong leaning on the other three. And if that one doesn't win, the other one will. About the only storyline left to uncover is how big an impact Avatar will have. For about three weeks there it looked like Sweepsville for James Cameron, but it's extremely doubtful he'll win Best Director, and because of that - and the lack of both writing and acting nominations - a Best Picture win seems to be highly uncertain, as well. But can it take the tech awards? You'd think so...but it hasn't so far, certainly not in a convincing way. So here are our picks, complete with that whole should win/will win thing: Best Picture
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up
Up in the Air Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: The Hurt Locker I've been on board this movie for nine months, so why back off now? This used to be deemed a two-horse race with Avatar, but Inglourious Basterds has snuck its way back into the discussion in the past couple of weeks. Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow For everything James Cameron did, everyone who has anything negative to say about it says the same thing: It looks great, but ooh, that story. You could still make a very good case for Cameron, but when Bigelow won the DGA award, that was the end of the discussion. Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia Should Win: Anyone Else
Will Win: Sandra Bullock Remember that scene in Moonstruck where Cher slaps Nic Cage and yells "Snap out of it"? I keep thinking Oscar voters will realize how completely OK Sandra Bullock is in The Blind Side in comparison to her competition. It's the worst of the five. In a perfect world, I'd love to see Carey Mulligan get it. I thought she did the best work, but if there's a Bullock protest vote, it would probably be Meryl. Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker Should Win: Christoph Waltz...oh wait...
Will Win: Jeff Bridges Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor for 17 minutes of screen time in Silence of the Lambs. I think Waltz' opening scene in Inglourious Basterds is longer than that. It's a lead role, and I think he could have won in this category. But because it's otherwise not that great, Bridges wins because he's so long overdue. Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’nique, Precious Should Win: Mo'Nique
Will Win: Mo'Nique Both supporting categories are runaways. Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz Waltz is the surest of sure bets in many years. Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up Should Win: Up
Will Win: Up A great year in animated film, though not exactly represented by this category. But Up and Mr. Fox were two of the freshest, most entertatining movies of 2009. Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds The Hurt Locker was won the past couple screenplay awards, only one of which excluded Tarantino's screenplay from consideration. So that could happen, and if so, then The Hurt Locker wins for a great many things, but it ought to be Basterds. Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air Should Win: In the Loop
Will Win: Up in the Air I would have preferred Fantastic Mr. Fox being offered up here, but with four Best Picture nominees, that was a lot to ask. Up in the Air will take it, but for pure love of writing, particularly for characters, In The Loop sure does kick ass. Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami
The Milk of Sorrow
The Secret in Their Eyes
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon Should Win: Un Prophete
Will Win: The White Ribbon Foreign language films don't have to play in the US to be considered for this category, so I really don't know if The White Ribbon deserves its front-runner status. The cinematography is its calling card. However, I was more riveted by Un Prophete. Best Documentary
The Cove
Burma VJ
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home Should Win: The Cove
Will Win: The Cove Never an easy category to predict because the voters often make points with their ballots, but The Cove looks like it has a pretty easy road ahead of it. Best Art Direction
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: Avatar There's been an Avatar sighting! Though some disagree with what looks like convincing evidence, Avatar doesn't appear to have a foothold on anything but tech awards, and not even all of those. But I can't see it losing here. Best Cinematography
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
The White Ribbon Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: The White Ribbon The photography and editing in The Hurt Locker gives the film its raw immediacy, but White Ribbon just won the award from the industry's professional cinematographers, and that's about all I need. As for Avatar, it's divisive. Yes, it looks sensational, but how much of that is actually "cinematography"? That probably keeps it from winning here. Best Costume Design
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria Should Win: The Young Victoria
Will Win: The Young Victoria Sandy Powell has three wins and eight nominations in sixteen years. This should be the fourth. As beautiful as her designs are, it's just not a terrific year in this category. Best Film Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: The Hurt Locker Are you sensing the theme yet? Could be a really big night for Kathryn Bigelow and company. Best Makeup
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria Should Win: Star Trek
Will Win: Star Trek I haven't seen Il Divo, but Trek has it all over Victoria in this department. Best Music (Original Score)
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up Should Win: Up
Will Win: Up Well, hmm. I'll go with Up, because it's about time to reward the very busy Michael Giacchino. I didn't love any of the other candidates, save Mr. Fox, but that would be really out of left field. Best Music (Original Song)
"Almost There" from The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans" from The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname" from Paris 36
"Take it All" from Nine
"The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart Should Win: "The Weary Kind"
Will Win: "The Weary Kind" This one seems like a foregone conclusion: A movie about music with two acting nominees (and probably one win) should be enough to seal the deal. Plus, "The Weary Kind" is a great record. Best Sound Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: Avatar Again, you might be surprised to learn that The Hurt Locker has been the dominant post-season winner in the audio categories, but I'm betting for the split with Avatar in the two fields. Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: The Hurt Locker Hurt Locker just won the same award from the sound mixers guild, so...you tell me. Best Visual Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: Avatar I will not justify this with an explanation Best Documentary Short
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Booth Gardener
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin Should Win: I have no idea
Will Win: Let's say...The Last Truck Damn bracket busters! I think there's only been one year when I've seen every nominee in each category. And that was the only year I saw the nominees in this field. I really can't help you here. Best Short Film (Animated)
French Roast
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death Should Win: Logorama
Will Win: Logorama Another tough category, because the animated shorts can be for something from Pixar just as easily as it could be for a Swiss student film. These voters do their own thing. I liked Logorama a lot - you can watch all five nominees here - and it's got more heat than anything else, but it could be Loaf and Death, because it's Wallace and Gromit. Best Short Film (Live Action)
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants Should Win: The Door
Will Win: The Door Didn't see this year's batch, but I have it on good authority that The Door will edge out The New Tenants in this category. But much like the animated shorts, the voters aren't really swayed by campaigning here.

Comments

[knives]

I'm going to put my money on Ajami winning foreign because of stupid politics. White Ribbon and a Prophet are too weird for oscar voters.

[MRPigg]

I think it is unfair to claim that the Oscar telecast is probably going to be "boring" simply based on the fact that most of the winners are foregone conclusions. For me, a lack of "suspense" involved in who may or may not win does not necessarily make for an uninteresting broadcast. Maybe it's just me, but I don't usually watch the Oscars just to see who wins...

On that note, there always does seem to be an odd, out of left field surprise. For this year, I have a funny gut feeling about Carey Mulligan. And, the Best Actress category (in a less than stellar year for women) is admittedly the most up in the air of the "big six."

[Vince]

I think that The Secret in Their Eyes might pull an upset. It's been getting excellent reviews from what I hear, plus the Foreign Language category has had its share of surprise, underdog winners from the past few years. Remember when Waltz With Bashir & The Class were supposed to win last year, but Departures ended up taking the big prize?

Otherwise, my picks are more or less the same as yours. I think I'm going to skip the Awards tomorrow- I've got a ton of homework to catch up on; also, the awards don't seem as essential and lavishing as they did in years past.

[D]

Personally I'm hoping Avatar and Hurt Locker split the picture and director awards and something pulls off an upset in the Original Screenplay category just so we can see the Big 8 categories go to 8 different movies. Hell even if Bastards wins screen play the Big 6 (picture, director, screenplays and lead actor/actress) would still go to 6 different movies.

[Don Draper]

I'm sorry "Avatar" is good not best picture good. It should go to "The Hurt Locker". Sandra Bullock taking home best actress is really a stretch, at best I mean I can maybe understand a nomination ("It's an honor just to be nominated") Of course the good folks who made "District 9" should remember that. "Inglorious Basterds" I'm still trying to figure out. To be fair I did watch "Basterds" twice recently it grew on me I liked it more and more. Although you can easily cut out "The Blind Side" it was good just not best picture good, I mean you know what happens there is really no suspense, no drama. "The Hangover" or "Star Trek" should've taken it's slot. There is no respect for comedy. "Avatar" is actually, an "Aliens" "Mom & Dad Save the World" "Fern Gully" "Dances With Wolves" "Star Wars" heck I mean with the 'love' scene what's sad about it is that the female character basically pledged herself heart and sould to a blow up doll. (Remember he didn't transfer his soul until the end) I am really not giving anything away oh and I don't know 10 people who've not seen it. James Cameron did deliver on the movie however it is not really best picture oscar worthy. Hey what do I know all the nominees are living the dream while I do the crap job I have.

[Joe Somebody]

Carey Mulligan better win