Fearless Forecast - 'Kick-Ass'...Does

Before we get to this weekend's box office derby, we need to amend last weekend's results. I'll stop short of saying we need to correct them because we did give Clash of the Titans some wiggle room to recapture the top spot since Sunday's results are just estimates. That's what happened - Titans beat Date Night - but it wasn't by a healthy percentage and the theme is still the same: Titans took a major hit in the second weekend. You'll see just how hard that hit was this weekend, when Titans falls below not just this week's two new releases but the movies it beat a week ago. In its place at number one will be Kick-Ass, and it should lead by a significant margin. With some 10pm and midnight shows tonight to help get the word out, Kick-Ass ought to have a big Friday. How it holds on Saturday and Sunday is the only question mark. Because the box office has been unpredictable over the past few months for movies that do well, it's hard to say what the threshold is for Kick-Ass. A year ago, I would've said $30 million, but after Paranormal Activity, Avatar, and Alice in Wonderland, that has become tougher to gauge.I'll still go sub-$30, thanks in large part to the controversy about the Hit-Girl character, but it could also explode. Even then, I don't want to predict what the explosion would look like, though it's not playing in enough theaters to do $70 million or anything like that. Maybe $35 million or slightly higher if it really gains traction. With a lot less buzz, Death at a Funeral will still do pretty well. The ensemble comedy really ought to be in more theaters, given the months of promotion the film has received, primarily on cable. But Screen Gems has fewer than 3,000 houses this weekend. It'll be fairly competitive given that amount of theaters, though, and Screen Gems might just have a kinda sorta hit on its hands. That doesn't happen often. Look for How to Train Your Dragon to hold down third place again, thanks to very small losses overall. Really, what happened on the opening weekend? Everything after that has been very good. Date Night should wind up in fourth with about $15 million, and Titans will probably do about $13 million, maybe even a little less since Kick-Ass will steal a bunch of its leftover audience. The Top Five:
1 - Kick-Ass ($29.5 million)
2 - Death at a Funeral ($18.5 million)
3 - Train Your Dragon ($16 million)
4 - Date Night ($14.5 million)
5 - Clash of the Titans ($13 million)

Comments

[MRPigg]

Holmberg interviewed Christopher Mintz-Plasse this morning and let slip that a "movie reviewer buddy" of his was in awe of "the best superhero movie ever, hands down."
Don't worry, Colin. Only a few more hours until your embargo is gone and you can post the review that is itching to get out of you.

I can understand your hesitance, but I think you are going to come up short in your fearless forecast once again.

[SEAN]

GOOOO KICK ASS!!!

Im excited and waiting to see what happens!

Hope Date Night continues to fare well as well

[Adam]

Kick-Ass isn't even playing in my area. What the heck's up with that?

[Steve]

Can't wait to read your review, but i also think you are going co come up lite on your forecast as well.
Cheers Colin keep up the good work.

[nicksoapdish]

I'm in Japan and I don't think I'll ever get to see Kick Ass, I have to wait until June to see Iron Man, and on top of that, movies all cost about 18 dollars here. This is going to be a sad summer for my relationship with movies.