Fearless Forecast: 'Shrek' Could Use More Green

We probably won't have our second of several hundred-million-dollar openings for the summer thanks to Shrek Forever After. The reviews aren't all that good (I liked it more than most, I gather), but the ticket prices are. I've read that the 3-D IMAX tickets in New York are 20 bucks a pop. Still, most of the business won't come from that revenue stream, of course, but the 3-D tickets are already substantially higher than prices for standard format houses. And since How to Train Your Dragon took in somewhere in the vicinity of 65% of its opening weekend money from 3-D, expect Shrek, even if the percentage is the same, to add 30% of revenue off lots more tickets sold. The opening weekend for Shrek the Third three years ago was a mammoth $121 million; at the time, that was the third-best ever, and is still the highest for an animated film. But I expect fewer people show up this time so the added 3-D dollars will bolster the opening weekend figure significantly. It'll win with no problem, but it shouldn't be anywhere near as high as Shrek the Third. Iron Man 2 will drop to second place, followed by Robin Hood; both movies will probably shed 50% of their number from last weekend. That would put Iron Man over a quarter-billion in US cash, but it's starting to sink, perhaps generating less than $15 million on the weekedays this week, running almost even with the first film. Considering the opening weekend was so much higher, that shows there's probably less interest from returning customers. Robin Hood seems poised to hit $100 million in the US, just not this weekend. That'll probably take another two to three weeks. The big money for this film is overseas, though, and it should be past the $150 million mark in the foreign territories soon. The week's other new release is MacGruber. It has good reviews so far and a built-in audience, but because of fewer theaters, it won't have a chance to really break out this weekend. Could it hold the way The Hangover did last summer? Potentially, but it will be broadsided by two major releases next weekend, which Hangover didn't have to contend with. Still, it could play well for a while as the only adult male comedy in town. The Top Five:
1 - Shrek ($95 million)
2 - Iron Man ($23 million)
3 - Robin Hood ($19 million)
4 - MacGruber ($16 million)
5 - Letters to Juliet ($8 million)

Comments

[Nelson]

is the movie called "The Final Chapter" or is it "Forever After"?

[Get The Big Picture]

No idea. They're marketing it as The Final Chapter almost exclusively, but the "official" title still appears to be Forever After.