Box Office - 'Shrek' Opens With a Dull Roar

Doesn't really look like a happily ever after scenario for DreamWorks this weekend: Shrek Forever After won the Friday box office but in no way was up to the challenge set forth by its predecessors. While Shrek the Third made a whopping $38 million on its opening day, Forever After only took in $20.7 million, with over half of its 4,350 screens being 3-D. Yeah, that's about half, and probably less than that if you're only looking at tickets sold. While the opening weekend for Iron Man 2 wasn't a disappointment, the next two weeks have followed pretty much the same course that the first Iron Man saw two years ago, when Speed Racer and Prince Caspian failed to do big business. Shrek should still make around $70 million, thanks to a family-friendly Saturday, but that's way below even the most conservative estimates, which put its debut in the mid-80s. What's the end of the road going to be for Shrek this time around? I can't believe that the most lucrative animated series ever looks so mild right now, but anything more than $200 - $225 million seems like a reach. This is coming with the widest PG opening ever, by the way, and with the 3-D and IMAX screens, so it's actually even worse than it looks. Of course, How to Train Your Dragon has passed $225 million and it started even lower than Shrek, but it had not only better notices but room to breathe. Shrek has a few weeks to cash in, and because of Memorial Day weekend, it could make a better return than an average second weekend, but this is not good news for DreamWorks. It's still going to put up big numbers overseas, but the US crowd has had its fill. That's a better verdict than the one MacGruber received, however. Mid-teens seemed like the apex for the Saturday Night Live film, and it will be lucky if it ever gets there. With about $1.5 million in business on Friday, its weekend estimate will be lower than $5 million. And movies that start out that poorly usually don't hit the magic multiplier of three, where their opening weekend box office is tripled over the theatrical run. After the two-week contracts run out, nobody's going to renew, so MacGruber shouldn't reach $15 million at this rate, which is kind of hard to believe. Iron Man 2 is in second place with $7.5 million; the first Iron Man made $8.7 million on its third Friday. Looks like a $22 - $25 million frame this time around. Robin Hood drew $5.6 million, down considerably from its opening day, as well.

Comments

[Nelson]

ouch, shrek is done for good